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Friday, April 11, 2008

Airlines Best Fares


Just about every air-travel trend is getting worse, driven largely by soaring jet-fuel prices. To save money, strapped carriers are adding every surcharge they can get away with, raising fares, eliminating perks, and cutting back flights.

That means air travel is going to get more stressful than ever. Most flights will be full, with crammed overhead bins and no chance for a better seat. Delays have hit record levels recently and will probably get worse. And there will be less margin for error, so a problem with one flight could quickly cascade to others.

Frequent fliers who spend a lot on air tickets, of course, get the best seats and other preferential treatment--and often know the best tricks for traveling smoothly. The rest of the flying public has less recourse. But there are a few things you can do to reduce the odds of a middle seat, a lost bag, a surprise surcharge, or a nightmare trip:

Book directly with the airline. Use websites like Orbitz, Travelocity, and Expedia to research flights, but once you've found the one you want, book through the airline's website or a live agent. That's often where you'll find the best fare and have the best chance of getting an aisle or window seat. And if something goes wrong, the airline is more likely to help if you originally made the reservation through it.

Use every automated service available. Airlines have replaced many of their live agents with online services and machines at the airport--one trend that actually benefits travelers. Fliers with no bags to check can avoid lines by printing their boarding pass either at the airline's website up to 24 hours in advance or at an airport kiosk. This is also a chance to check whether a better seat is available. The sooner you check in, the better--all your fellow travelers are doing the same thing, and if any choice seats are still left, they'll go to whoever claims them first.

Pack light--really light. Most airlines allow one checked bag at no extra charge but now tack on $25 for a second checked bag. That's meant to bring in a bit of extra revenue--but also to encourage passengers to pack less, to help cut down on the weight in the plane and reduce fuel use. Some fliers try to skirt the surcharge by packing two bags' worth of stuff into one huge suitcase. Bad idea--many airlines also charge $100 for an overweight bag.

Then there are fliers who stuff a week's worth of gear into an oversize carry-on. That can backfire, too. On full flights, the overhead bins are often full before half the passengers have even boarded, and that bulging duffel won't fit under a seat, either. That means it will end up getting checked, costing you--and those around you--lots of added inconvenience.

Better to underpack and pick up spare socks or underwear at your destination if you really need them. If you're transporting gifts or anything that can be shipped by mail or UPS, do that ahead of time. It'll cost less than that $100 surcharge.

Fly off-off-peak. A red-eye or crack-of-dawn departure might cost you some sleep--but buy you some comfort. The only flights these days with any chance of a light load are those at the start or end of the day, when airlines are often moving planes into position for a long shift of full-capacity hauling.

Consider paying for a more comfortable seat. Some airlines now charge an extra $15 or $20 for exit-row seats or other spots in coach that tend to have a bit more legroom or are closer to the front of the plane. Get over the outrage, and pay up. "It's not such a terrible amount to pay to be comfortable," says David Stempler, president of the Air Travelers Association. Paying the extra fee might also entitle you to board before the rest of the horde, ensuring an overhead spot for your bag and less jostling.

Look into the government's Registered Traveler program. Fliers who enroll in this new program agree to supply personal info and submit to a background check, in exchange for an ID that allows them to pass through expedited security lines at the airport. Road warriors who have VIP status with their airline often get access to express security lines, anyway, and wouldn't need it. And so far, just a few airports and carriers participate, so it makes sense only for certain travelers. But this program is likely to grow quickly, and for people who travel once or twice per month, the cost--about $100 upfront, plus a $28 annual fee--might seem quite reasonable if it takes one long line out of the usual airport experience.

Be a low-maintenance traveler. Flights go more smoothly for people who do what they're supposed to. Check the Transportation Security Administration's website before your trip for the latest baggage rules. Use a regulation-size carry-on. Pack snacks. Most important, with so many things that can go wrong, arrive early, and have a backup plan. "Time is your friend," says Stempler. "Getting there late only puts you at a disadvantage." And no traveler wants to start a flight like that.

7 Stocks You Need to Know for Monday

Stocks plunged on Friday after General Electric reported much weaker than anticipated results, and lowered its earnings forecast for 2008, and consumer sentiment fell to a 26-year low The Dow fell -256.56, the Nasdaq Composite -61.46 and the S&P 500 -27.72.

7 Stocks You Need to Know for Monday

General Electric (NYSE:GE) plunged nearly 13%, the most since the '87 crash, after the company reported earnings that missed estimates by $0.07 per share. The news was particularly disappointing because the company announced in January that it expected to report earnings in-line with estimates. GE's Short Term PowerRating is 5.

Shares of AMR Corp (NYSE:AMR) dropped after American Airlines was forced to cancel hundreds more flights on Friday. The total number of flights cancelled by American Airlines so far this week rose above 2,600. AMR's Short Term PowerRating is 5.

Genentech (NYSE:DNA) reported earnings of $0.84 per share, beating the consensus forecast by $0.02. DNA's Short Term PowerRating is 6.

Fastenal (NasdaqGS:FAST) rose more than 4% after the company beat estimates by $0.03. FAST's Short Term PowerRating is 4.

Shares of Frontier Airlines (NYSE:FRNT) collapsed 69% after the company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Before the market open on Monday, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) is scheduled to report earnings, with analysts looking for $2.05 per share. BLK's Short Term PowerRating is 7.

And, Charles Schwab (NYSE:SCHW) is expected to report earnings of $0.26. SCHW's Short Term PowerRating is 5.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Microsoft and News Corp Bid for Yahoo

Yahoo and AOL are reportedly on the verge of announcing a surprise merger plan, as part of a brilliant Yahoo counter-attack. And now Andrew Ross Sorkin and Miguel Helft of the NYT report that Microsoft and News Corp (NWS) are in talks to make a joint bid for Yahoo:

Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation (NWS) is in talks with Microsoft (MSFT) about joining in its contested bid for Yahoo, according to people involved in the discussions. The pairing, which would combine Yahoo (YHOO), Microsoft’s MSN and News Corporation’s MySpace, would create a behemoth that would upend the Internet landscape.

If News Corporation throws its weight behind Microsoft’s offer, it could allow Microsoft to raise its bid, putting even more pressure on Yahoo and its shareholders. At the same time, the alignment of Microsoft and News Corporation would remove a possible alternative for Yahoo, leaving it with fewer opportunities to escape Microsoft’s grasp.

The talks between Microsoft and News Corporation are at a sensitive stage, people involved in the discussions said. “There’s a long way to go before anything is definite,” one person involved in the talks said.

Would this combination make sense? Sure it would make sense. Owning MySpace standalone isn't doing Rupert any good--he's getting his clock cleaned by Facebook. MSN's dead in the water. But throw all that together with Yahoo and you could build a pretty honkinging global communications, social networking, and advertising platform.

Rupert's got some cash, too, which means that the two might be able to pay more without infuriating their own shareholders bases.

In any event, at this point, you gotta believe Yahoo's stock is going up.

Don't Miss

AOL and Yahoo May Announce Merger Next Week

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

American Airlines Cancels Flights

Business trips and vacations were disrupted for tens of thousands of travelers Wednesday as American Airlines canceled more than 1,000 flights -- nearly half its schedule -- to fix faulty wiring that could cause a short-circuit or even a fire and explosion.

Executives at American said safety was never compromised, and they suggested the nation's biggest airline was the victim of suddenly stepped-up scrutiny by federal regulators.

American estimated that more than 100,000 travelers were booked on the canceled flights. Many had to scramble to book new flights and were stranded at hotels far from home.

The airline had already scrubbed 460 flights on Tuesday after federal inspectors found problems with wiring work done two weeks ago, during the first set of shutdowns.

A top executive said the cancellations would be a "significant" cost to American, and shares of parent AMR Corp. fell 11.1 percent, down $1.15 to $9.17.

The issue stems from an order that the Federal Aviation Administration gave airlines in September 2006 -- and gave airlines until last month to meet -- about the bundling of wires in the backup power system for the fuel pump of the MD-80 airplanes. The fear is that improperly bundled wires could rub, leading to an electrical short or even fire. However, no serious incidents have been blamed on the bundles, the FAA said.

American officials thought they had fixed the problem last month. But this week, FAA inspectors found problems with the work done on more than a dozen planes. American said it had no choice but to ground all 300 of its MD-80s to deal with the wiring bundles.

American operates about 2,200 daily flights, more than one-third with MD-80s. Nearly half the cancellations were concentrated at two airports, in Dallas and Chicago.

At New York's LaGuardia Airport on Wednesday, hundreds of passengers stood in check-in lines or milled about, using cell phones to get updates on their flights. The airline offered free doughnuts, coffee and orange juice, but there were few takers.

"They should be able to predict these kinds of things," said Laura Goodman, whose flight home to Dallas was canceled. She said would miss an important meeting because the airline couldn't rebook her until Thursday.

New Yorker Michelle Soss had hoped to steal a few days in Albuquerque, N.M.

"I covered my kids' schedules, I covered my work schedule to get away for a few days," she said. "I don't know if I'm getting anywhere."

American's cancellations came after similar delays at Southwest, Delta and United. Last week, hundreds of travelers were marooned when Aloha Airlines and ATA Airlines shut down and filed for bankruptcy protection.

Alaska Airlines said Wednesday it canceled 14 flights to inspect the wiring on its nine MD-80s.

For travelers, the bad news might not be over. Daniel Garton, American's executive vice president, said flights would be canceled Thursday -- he said it was too early to say how many -- and possibly on Friday, too.

A return to normal operations depends on how quickly mechanics can inspect and fix the wire bundles. As of Wednesday morning, only 30 MD-80s had been cleared to fly by the FAA.

Garton acknowledged that the bundling of wires had not met FAA standards, but he said "these were not huge errors" and posed no threat to safety. He said the agency used to give airlines "latitude" in interpreting safety regulations, but no longer.

The FAA began looking more closely at airlines' compliance with safety directives in recent weeks, after it was criticized for letting Southwest operate planes that had missed inspections for cracked fuselages.

In the past few weeks, the FAA levied a $10.2 million penalty against Southwest and conducted new inspections at all U.S. airlines, leading to flight cancellations at Southwest, Delta and United.

FAA spokeswoman Diane Spitaliere said inspectors found problems with the wiring bundles at 15 of 19 American MD-80s that it checked this week.

The 2006 safety order from the FAA directs airlines in how to pack and stow wiring to a hydraulic pump in the wheel well to prevent the wires from rubbing together.

According to the FAA, shorted wires could ignite fuel vapors and cause a fuel-tank explosion that could destroy a plane.

The explosion of TWA Flight 800 off New York's Long Island that killed all 230 people aboard in July 1996 was blamed on fuel vapors ignited by wiring. But it was a Boeing 747, not an MD-80, and investigators believe the disaster involved different wiring from the bundles now under scrutiny.

Brian Stirm, an aircraft-maintenance expert at Purdue University, said airlines had plenty of time for the inspections and that even an untrained mechanic could spot a problem.

The cancellations could hardly come at a worse time for American. Its parent, AMR Corp., is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings in two weeks, and analysts are forecasting a loss of more than $300 million. High fuel prices and the downturn in the economy are hurting the industry.

American officials said the company would give $500 travel vouchers to anyone stranded overnight. It also paid for hotel rooms and meals for an undisclosed number of passengers.

Bob McAdoo, an airline analyst, said passengers might soon forget the debacle, especially since several other major airlines have canceled flights recently. But he said passengers who missed big events like weddings might avoid American again.

Kathy Neer of Santa Fe, N.M., was caught up in both waves of cancellations to and from a vacation in Paris. She and her husband were stranded in Dallas on Tuesday on the final leg of their journey home. American gave the Neers a voucher for a hotel room and seats on another flight home Wednesday.

"They say our flight is leaving at 3:55 p.m., but do you think we trust them?" Neer said. "After being burned twice, we're a little skeptical."

Monday, April 7, 2008

Hewehi Market Updates

The major indices are holding near their best levels of the session. Financials (+1.9%) led the recent buying interest, taking the leadership spot from the energy sector (+1.5%).

Market breadth leans bullish. Advancers outpace decliners by more than 2-to-1 on the NYSE and by 4-to-3 on the Nasdaq. New 52-week highs outpace new lows by 61-to-1 on the NYSE, and are even on the Nasdaq. Volume is on the light side.DJ30 +93.30 NASDAQ +14.61 SP500 +12.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1180/1616/802 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 951/2097/530 mln

The stock market has maintained last week’s bullish bias. At midday, the stock market is posting a substantial gain, with all ten economic sectors in positive territory. Market moving news has been relatively slow this session, with only one economic report set for release later in the afternoon, and no earnings reports.

Shares of Washington Mutual (WM 23.99, +2.44) have soared 24% on reports that it is close to a deal that will supply the struggling company with $5 billion in capital. The Wall Street Journal reports the deal will be funded by private-equity firm TPG and other investors.

Meanwhile, UBS (UBS 35.29, +1.64) is posting a healthy gain after being upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.

As a result, the financials sector has climbed 1.7%, and is providing leadership.

Microsoft (MSFT 29.27, +0.11) sent Yahoo! (YHOO 27.81, -0.55) a letter, warning that if Yahoo does not accept its Jan. 31 $44.6 billion offer, Microsoft will take its offer hostile by going directly to shareholders, according to reports. Yahoo responded that it is open to a deal with Microsoft, but feels the current offer undervalues the company.

In other deal news, Novartis (NVS 50.82, -1.30) is paying $11 billion to acquire a 25% stake in Alcon (ACL 153.61, +5.17) from Nestle.

Crude oil has rallied 2.9% to $109.25 per barrel. There does not appear to be a specific catalyst for the gains. As a result, the energy sector (+1.7%) has been a standout.
DJ30 +86.87 NASDAQ +13.81 SP500 +11.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1138/1641/710 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 914/2095/471 mln

The stock market is trying to recover back to its session highs. The recent gains have been broad-based, with all ten economic sectors making it back to positive territory. Treasuries are facing some selling interest, with the 10-year note shedding 24 ticks.DJ30 +68.55 NASDAQ +10.16 SP500 +9.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1140/1608/601 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 927/2046/396 mln

The Nasdaq fell to the unchanged mark, but has since recovered a bit as it posts a modest gain. All sectors have slipped off their best levels. Materials is now up only 0.8%, after being up as much as 1.9%. It remains the only sector in positive territory year-to-date, with a 3.7% advance.DJ30 +47.17 NASDAQ +8.46 SP500 +7.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1167/1555/505 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 921/2005/328 mln

The major indices continue to post a gain, but are off their best levels of the morning. Four of the ten economic sectors are in negative territory, although their losses are modest.

The stock market is now up 9.6% from its 52-week low that was reached on March 17, with financials rebounding 17.8%.DJ30 +34.36 NASDAQ +7.02 SP500 +6.55 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1190/1409/364 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 954/1903/235 mln

After dipping a bit, the major indices are trading near their opening highs. Washington Mutual (WM 11.95, +1.78) is spiking 17.5% on the capital infusion report.

The energy sector (+1.7%) is showing strength as crude rallies 2.1% to $108.45 per barrel. There is not a specific catalyst for the gain in crude oil prices. The materials sector (+1.8%) is providing leadership, as the fertilizer & agricultural chemicals group extends its rally.

Defensive oriented utilities (-0.2%), consumer staples (flat) and healthcare (+0.2%) are underperforming on a relative basis.

This session's economic calendar is light, with only the February consumer credit report at 15:00 ET.DJ30 +56.18 NASDAQ +13.14 SP500 +8.26 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 937/1516/229 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 780/2002/159 mln

The major indices open on a high note. Financials (+0.9%) are outperforming after the Wall Street Journal reported Washington Mutual (WM) is close to getting a $5 billion capital infusion from a private equity group and other investors.

Also topping headlines, is news that Microsoft (MSFT) sent Yahoo! (YHOO) a letter that stated Yahoo has three weeks to accept Microsoft's offer. Yahoo responded it is not against a deal with Microsoft, but the current offer is not in the best interest for Yahoo's shareholders.

DJ30 +43.90 NASDAQ +9.97 SP500 +6.91

S&P futures vs fair value: +9.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.2.

S&P futures vs fair value: +9.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0.

S&P futures vs fair value: +11.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.8. Current indications suggest a positive start to trading. In commodity trading, crude oil is up 1.1% to $107.38 per barrel. Gold is up 0.7% to $915.40 per ounce.

S&P futures vs fair value: +11.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.3. Futures suggest a higher open to the trading day. Washington Mutual (WM) is close to completing a deal to get a $5 billion capital infusion from private-equity firm TPG and other investors, according to the Wall Street Journal. Microsoft (MSFT) has threatened a hostile takeover of Yahoo!(YHOO), if Yahoo does not agree to a merger within the next three weeks, according to the Wall Street Journal. Yahoo responded that it is not opposed to a deal with Microsoft, but feels the current offer undervalues Yahoo. In other deal news, pharmaceutical company Novartis AG (NVS) is buying a 25% stake in eye-care product maker Alcon (ACL), and may purchase another 52%.

06:13 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.0.

06:13 am : FTSE...5990.30...+43.20...+0.7%. DAX...6826.34...+62.34...+0.9%.

06:13 am : Nikkei...13450.23...+157.01...+1.2%. Hang Seng...24578.76...+314.13...+1.3%.

Stocks Head to Higher Open

Stocks were poised to open higher Monday after several reports of potential corporate deals, including speculation Washington Mutual Inc. will get a $5 billion investment from private equity firms.

The nation's largest thrift is in talks with buyout shop TPG Inc. about a possible capital injection, according to The Wall Street Journal. The company, which has suffered big losses tied to subprime mortgages, would become the latest U.S. financial institution to reach such a deal.

In addition, Microsoft Corp. gave Yahoo Inc. a three week deadline to agree to a takeover, or Microsoft would launch a proxy fight for control of the company. Yahoo said Monday the deal isn't in the best interests of its shareholders, and called the proxy threat counterproductive.

And Swiss pharmaceutical maker Novartis AG said it will spend about $38 billion in a two-step bid for a majority stake in U.S. eye-care company Alcon Inc.

Earnings season unofficially begins after the closing bell when Alcoa Inc., the world's third-largest aluminum producer, is scheduled to release first-quarter results.

Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 69, or 0.70 percent, to 12,679. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures advanced 11.90, or 0.87 percent, to 1,383.80. Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 15.75, or 0.84 percent, to 1,885.50.

Bond prices fell. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.52 percent from 3.47 percent late Wednesday.

Light, sweet crude rose $1.16 to $107.39 in premarket electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold was higher, and the dollar was mixed against other major currencies.

There were no major economic reports scheduled to be released during the session.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 1.18 percent. Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.95 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 0.32 percent, and France's CAC-40 added 1.13 percent.

Sunday, April 6, 2008

investors Await 1Q Earnings

The fear of the unknown that has rattled the stock market for months appears to be fading. The question now is whether upcoming corporate financial reports and readings on the housing market will further calm Wall Street's anxieties or rekindle them.

Stocks rose early last week and, despite data showing that U.S. employers are eliminating more jobs than they have in five years, held onto their gains. There was a palpable relief that some banks such as Merrill Lynch & Co. feel they have enough cash, while others in need of capital -- namely Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Switzerland's UBS AG -- are able to sell stock to raise cash.

Now that JPMorgan Chase & Co. has offered to buy Bear Stearns Cos. and the Federal Reserve has lent hundreds of billions of dollars to banks, investors are more confident that the financial system can bounce back from what looked last month like a worst-case scenario: a big bank on the brink of collapse.

Wall Street knows other problems could arise, but at this point the overriding sentiment is that troubles down the road won't pull the whole market and economy down with them.

"There's been so much talk of recession for so long now. If anything, I get the sense that people are looking to get back in," said Brian Gendreau, investment strategist for ING Investment Management. But they're apprehensive, he added. "There's bad economic news still coming in. It takes some pretty steely nerves."

The Dow Jones industrial average finished last week up 3.22 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 4.86 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index ended up 4.20 percent.

The stock market's recovery was aided by selling exhaustion among big investors. Although it's impossible to predict the market's direction, it's likely that stocks are going to be driven less by investors' need to cash out, and more by the fundamentals underlying each stock. Those fundamentals will be determined mostly by profit reports.

Alcoa Inc. on Monday reports first-quarter results, and analysts, on average, predict the aluminum company's earnings per share fell 36 percent from where they were last year. Another Dow component, General Electric Co., reports on Friday, and the average analyst estimate is for a 16 percent gain in per-share earnings.

The big headliners, however, are likely to be next week's bank earnings.

Last week, the various banks traded more divergently from one another than they have in months, indicating that there is less fear about the sector as a whole. This is not to say the battered financial sector's troubles are over. Rather, there are winners and losers emerging, and market participants know that buying the winners now could bring huge returns in the months and years to come.

Meanwhile, the Fed on Tuesday is scheduled to release minutes from its March 18 meeting, when it lowered the key interest rate to 2.25 percent. Though the minutes will be regarded to some extent as old news -- they precede the Bear Stearns buyout -- investors will want to see evidence that the Fed remains ready to come to the financial system's rescue if the credit markets deteriorate further.

It's certainly possible the credit markets, though they've loosened up over the past week, could seize up again. The reason is the housing market is anticipated to take at least another year to recover. On Tuesday, economists expect the National Association of Realtors to report that pending sales of homes in February were only slightly higher than in January -- which saw the second-lowest reading on record.

"The core, the kernel, of the credit problems are mortgages," said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford. She said defaults in Alt-A mortgages may spike higher since they became popular relatively late in the mortgage boom. Alt-A mortgages are loans to individuals with cleaner credit records than subprime borrowers, but who are not considered prime.