Google Paid Clicks

New data confirming slowing growth in Google Inc.'s paid clicks renewed debate Thursday on Wall Street over whether the Internet search company's revenue can quickly adjust to changes it made in how it generates clicks.

Citing data that comScore Inc. released after the market closed on Wednesday, analysts said growth in Google's click-through rate has nearly ground to a halt.

Google's stock closed down $14.11, or 3.1 percent, to $444.08 in afternoon trading.

The click-through rate grew 3 percent in February compared to a year earlier, and January saw no increase compared to January 2007. Several months earlier, the rate was growing 25 percent to 40 percent compared to a year earlier. The new data is in line with click-through declines Google reported last quarter.

Google, which gets paid when users click on a sponsored ad that comes up as the result of a Google search, has reported steadily rising per-click revenue.

The Mountain View-based company said in January that the drop in click-through rates is a result of its efforts to boost the usefulness of each click to its advertisers' sales performance. For instance, the company decreased the space around a word that would result in a click, so more clicks would be intentional.

Analysts disagree on how long it will take Google's per-click revenue to adjust to any increased value per click it has created.

Rob Sanderson, an analyst with American Technology Research, said per-click revenue will rise immediately if advertisers see more value in each click, because they'll pay more for them at auction.

"It's not clicks that advertisers are really buying, it's what those clicks get them, which is sales conversions," said Sanderson.

Colin Gillis, an Internet analyst at Canaccord Adams, also was optimistic.

"It's very difficult to spin this as positive data point, but it also doesn't mean the world is ending," Gillis said.

The click-through rate is only one piece of the equation for Google, he said.

"The counter point is that Google is out there saying, 'We are trying to make our clicks more worthwhile.' They want to actually deliver relevant hot leads to their customers because that's what their customers want," Gillis said.

Other analysts disagreed.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster predicted Google will fall short of Wall Street expectations in the current quarter because of the click-through rate.

Lehman Brothers analyst Doug Anmuth cut his 2008 profit estimate for Google and reduced his price target to $580 per share from $644, citing the click-through rates.

He also said advertisers may be trimming their budgets -- and not responding to the changes Google has made.

Google, which reports first quarter earnings April 17, declined to comment on the comScore data.

Numbers from comScore are closely watched by some industry analysts, even though the firm uses online recruitment techniques dismissed by many traditional pollsters.

Sanderson said comScore's numbers have a wide margin of error and can't be used to predict quarterly results.

"ComScore data has a really wide range of plus or minus in terms of being accurate. They don't know what the real number is, it's just a sample," he said.

Tech stocks look for direction in early trading

Technology stocks put in a mixed early trading performance Wednesday. Gains came from Dell Inc. (DELL:19.98, +0.15, +0.8%) , Oracle Corp. (ORCL:19.63, +0.12, +0.6%) and Google Inc. (GOOG:444.29, +4.45, +1.0%) , while decliners included Apple Inc. (AAPL:126.20, -1.15, -0.9%) , Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ:47.54, -0.38, -0.8%) and IBM Corp. (IBM:116.41, -0.08, -0.1%) . Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO: 25.00, +0.35, +1.4%) shares rose 31 cents to $24.99 after the video game publisher on Tuesday raised its quarterly outlook due to strong advance orders of "Grand Theft Auto IV." The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 7 points to 2,262.

Yahoo research centre in Israel

Web search company Yahoo Inc.said on Tuesday it has launched a new research lab in Israel, its first in the region.

The research lab in the northern port city of Haifa will be led by Ronny Lempel, an information organisation and retrieval expert. He previously worked at the Information Retrieval Group at IBM's Haifa Research Lab, focusing on research and development for enterprise search systems.

The lab, which opened on Tuesday, will focus on simplifying complex technology problems in searching the Web, Yahoo said.

Rival Google opened its second R&D centre in Israel in June. Its Israeli centres are in Tel Aviv, Israel's financial and cultural centre, and Haifa.

"Search is still in its infancy," Prabhakar Raghavan, head of Yahoo Research, said in a statement. "At Yahoo, we are working on the hard core science that can lead to search experiences that are significantly beyond the current art." (Reporting by Tova Cohen, editing by Elizabeth Fullerton)

EU approves Google's DoubleClick bid

European Union regulators say Internet portal giant's $3.1 billion bid for online ad tracker won't hurt competition.

European Union regulators have given a green light to Google Inc.'s $3.1 billion (€2.13 billion) bid for online ad tracker DoubleClick, saying the deal will not hurt competition for online ads.
Critics have complained the deal would give Google (GOOG) too much power.

But the European Commission says it found no proof that Google and DoubleClick would be able to squeeze out competitors. That is because Microsoft, (MSFT) Yahoo (YHOO) and AOL provided "credible" alternatives for placing ads on Web sites.

The commission says Google and DoubleClick are not currently rivals. It says Google's purchase even of a potential competitor would not hurt competition in the online ad market.

Yahoo Board to Spurn $44B Microsoft Bid

Yahoo Inc.'s board will reject Microsoft Corp.'s $44.6 billion takeover bid after concluding the unsolicited offer undervalues the slumping Internet pioneer, a person familiar with the situation said Saturday.

The decision could provoke a showdown between two of the world's most prominent technology companies with Internet search leader Google Inc. looming in the background. Leery of Microsoft expanding its turf on the Internet, Google already has offered to help Yahoo avert a takeover and urged antitrust regulators to take a hard look at the proposed deal.

If the world's largest software maker wants Yahoo badly enough, Microsoft could try to override Yahoo's board by taking its offer -- originally valued at $31 per share -- directly to the shareholders. Pursuing that risky route probably will require Microsoft to attempt to oust Yahoo's current 10-member board.

Alternatively, Microsoft could sweeten its bid. Many analysts believe Microsoft is prepared to offer as much as $35 per share for Yahoo, which still boasts one of the Internet's largest audiences and most powerful advertising vehicles despite a prolonged slump that has hammered its stock.

Yahoo's board reached the decision after exploring a wide variety of alternatives during the past week, according to the person who spoke to The Associated Press. The person didn't want to be identified because the reasons for Yahoo's rebuff won't be officially spelled out until Monday morning.

Microsoft and Yahoo declined to comment Saturday on the decision, first reported by The Wall Street Journal on its Web site.

Yahoo's board concluded Microsoft's offer is inadequate even though the company couldn't find any other potential bidders willing to offer a higher price.

Without other suitors on the horizon, Yahoo has had little choice but to turn a cold shoulder toward Microsoft if the board hopes to fulfill its responsibility to fetch the highest price possible for the company, said technology investment banker Ken Marlin.

"You would expect Yahoo's board to reject Microsoft at first," Marlin said. "If they didn't, they would be accused of malfeasance."

But by spurning Microsoft, Yahoo risks further alienating shareholders already upset about management missteps that have led to five consecutive quarters of declining profits.

The downturn caused Yahoo's stock price to plummet by more than 40 percent, erasing about $20 billion in shareholder wealth, in the three months leading up to Microsoft's bid.

Seizing on an opportunity to expand its clout on the Internet, Microsoft dangled a takeover offer that was 62 percent above Yahoo's stock price of just $19.18 when the bid was announced Feb. 1. Yahoo shares ended the past week at $29.20.

Led by company co-founder and board member Jerry Yang, Yahoo now will be under intense pressure to lay out a strategy that will prevent its stock price from collapsing again. What's more, Yang and the rest of the management team must convince Wall Street that they can boost Yahoo's market value beyond Microsoft's offer.

Yahoo's shares traded at $31 as recently as November, but have eroded steadily amid concerns about the slowing economy and frustration with the slow pace of a turnaround that Yang promised last June when he replaced former movie studio mogul Terry Semel as Yahoo's chief executive officer.

This isn't the first time that Yahoo has spurned Microsoft. The Redmond, Wash.-based company offered $40 per share to buy Yahoo a year ago only to be shooed away by Semel, according to a person familiar with the matter. The person didn't want to be identified because that bid was never made public.

Yahoo now may want that Microsoft to raise its price to at least $40 per share again. That would force Microsoft to raise its current offer by about $12 billion -- a high price that might alarm its own shareholders.

Microsoft's stock price already has slid 12 percent since the company announced its Yahoo bid, reflecting concerns about the deal bogging down amid potential management distractions, sagging employee morale and other headaches that frequently arise when two big companies are combined.

Although it isn't involved directly in the deal, Google is the main reason Yahoo is being pursued by Microsoft.

Yahoo has struggled largely because it hasn't been able to target online ads as effectively as Google.

Microsoft believes Yahoo's brand, engineers, audience and services will provide the company with valuable weapons in its so far unsuccessful attempt to narrow Google's huge lead in the lucrative Internet search and advertising markets.

As it examined ways to thwart Microsoft, Yahoo considered an advertising partnership with Google -- an alliance long favored by analysts who believe it would boost the profits of both companies. It was unclear Saturday if Yahoo's plans for boosting its stock price include a Google partnership, which would probably face antitrust issues.

A Microsoft takeover of Yahoo would also be scrutinized by antitrust regulators in the United States and Europe. The antitrust uncertainties could be cited as one of the reasons that Yahoo's board decided to spurn Microsoft.

The Microsoft-Yahoo deal's bad numbers

Most of the analysis of Microsoft's $45 billion hostile offer for Yahoo has focused on technology and the role Yahoo could play in the Microsoft-Google wars. Today, though, let's look at what almost everyone has overlooked: the numbers. More specifically, we'll look at the way that one of Wall Street's biggest hitters, Joe Rosenberg, looks at the proposed deal.

Rosenberg, chief investment strategist at Loews Corp. (LTR), the giant conglomerate, is one of the most influential voices on Wall Street. In fact, his criticism of Microsoft in a Barron's interview two years ago, in which he criticized the firm's use of capital and suggested a $50 billion stock buyback, was a big factor in sparking the $40 billion buyback program that Microsoft (MSFT) launched in the fall of 2006.

So Rosenberg's opinion matters. And he thinks Microsoft's offer for Yahoo (YHOO) is nuts. "This is like a person who's completely lost his mind," Rosenberg told me in an interview. "It's absurd. They're not going to earn anything like a reasonable rate of return on their investment in Yahoo. It just doesn't make sense."

"This deal would do more harm to Microsoft shareholders than any of its competitors can do to it," Rosenberg said. "The company has lost sight of its principal focus, which is to produce value for shareholders."

“This deal would do more harm to Microsoft shareholders than any of its competitors can do to it.” Joe Rosenberg

Before we proceed, two disclosures. First, Rosenberg told me that Loews owns Microsoft stock. Second, Loews is one of my biggest individual holdings, which means I have money riding on Rosenberg's investment acumen.

Back to the main event. Until the Yahoo bid surfaced, Rosenberg was predicting that Microsoft would earn almost $2 a share in its current fiscal year, rising steadily to more than $4 a share in four years. (A major element in his thinking: Microsoft's sales to "developing markets" such as China, India and Eastern Europe will soar.) So at $32 - its price before news of the Yahoo offer drove its stock down sharply Friday - Microsoft looked cheap to Rosenberg. Now, he fears, Microsoft may be making the same mistake as other companies that did large, failed high-tech takeovers.

No, he's not talking about the 2000 deal that combined America Online with my employer Time Warner (TWX), which many people have cited as a cautionary tale for Microsoft-Yahoo.

Wrongly, in Rosenberg's opinion (and mine). How so? Because America Online's purchase of Time Warner turned out great for AOL shareholders, whose stock fell far less than other Internet issues when the bubble popped. The deal was disastrous for the sellers - the old Time Warner's stockholders - because the value of their shares was eviscerated.

The real parallels to Microsoft-Yahoo, says Rosenberg, citing his 47 years on Wall Street, are two largely-forgotten disasters: Xerox' $1 billion purchase of Scientific Data Systems in 1969 and AT&T's (T) $7.5 billion purchase of NCR in 1991. In both cases, the acquiring company paid top dollar for firms whose products and technology rapidly became obsolete.

Rosenberg doesn't pretend to be a tech maven, but he says it's clear that the market - which sent Yahoo's stock down 45% from October through last Thursday - is saying something negative about Yahoo's businesses and prospects. Microsoft, Rosenberg says, would be well-advised to listen.

Should Microsoft buy Yahoo, Rosenberg says, he, like other folks looking at this deal, expects Microsoft and Google to engage in price wars in the search and advertising businesses. But Rosenberg carries that thought one level further. Such a price war would hurt Yahoo's already-anemic profit margins, Rosenberg says, making a Microsoft purchase even more problematic.

Microsoft's future free cash flow per share would be substantially higher if it buys back its own shares, he said, rather than buying Yahoo by issuing about $23 billion of new stock and spending a net $15 billion or so in cash. (That cash number takes into account the approximately $8 billion of cash and marketable securities that Yahoo owns.)

Rosenberg says he's not trying to hurt Microsoft, he's trying to help. "They don't realize that by criticizing this deal, I'm trying to do them a favor," he says. And, of course, to do Loews a favor, too

Wall St. awaits another rally

This week, Wall Street hopes economic, earnings data keeps rally going

The stock market has been on the upswing, but few investors are relaxing just yet. This week's data on housing, retailers and labor costs will give Wall Street an idea of whether the economy is weakening or inflation is accelerating - or both.

Wall Street had a case of the winter blues in January, and understandably. With banks reporting huge losses, uncertainty brewing about whether the economy is in recession, and Americans struggling to keep up with their debt payments, there was nowhere to go but down. The Standard & Poor's 500 index recorded its worst January since 1990.

But the stock market has bounced back - last week, the Dow Jones industrial average jumped 4.39 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index added 3.75 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 4.87 percent.

The Dow remains 10 percent below the record close of 14,164.53 it reached on Oct. 9, but has recovered nearly 10 percent from the 15-month lows it hit in January.

There were many factors that helped buoy the market last week. The Federal Reserve met the market's hopes for another big rate cut by slashing key rates a half-point. Banks and regulators indicated they are working to help out the distressed companies that insure mortgage-backed bonds. And Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT, Fortune 500) bid for the struggling Internet provider Yahoo Inc. (YHOO, Fortune 500) reassured Wall Street that although the credit markets are tight, deals are being pitched.

Recent government reports have not painted a rosy picture of the economy, but they haven't indicated the nation is in the midst of a deep recession, either.

The Labor Department's employment report last week showed a net job loss in January for the first time in four years, but a report from the Institute for Supply Management said the manufacturing sector expanded. The Commerce Department said personal spending is growing at the weakest pace in more than a year, but it also reported a solid gain in orders of big-ticket, durable goods.

The markets are angling for more rate cuts to stoke the economy, but what could tie the Fed's hands is inflation. High food, energy and healthcare costs are a reason consumers - particularly homeowners with tough-to-pay mortgages - are cutting back on discretionary spending. Those high prices may also be the only reason readings on personal spending are in positive territory.

The Commerce Department's index last week for personal consumption expenditures, a gauge of inflation, rose 0.2 percent in December from November levels. This week, the Labor Department reports on productivity and labor costs; the market is expecting labor costs to decline, and could be disappointed if they end up being higher.

"The worst of all possible worlds is stagflation," said Janna Sampson, director of portfolio management at Oakbrook Investments. Stagflation happens when the economy weakens at the same time prices are rising. It's a problem that can't be solved with rate moves; rate cuts spur inflation but boost growth, while hikes control inflation but also dampen growth.

This week, economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR are preparing for more signs that the economy is still growing, but very slowly because of a weak consumer.

They expect the Commerce Department's December factory orders index on Monday to tick up and the Institute for Supply Management's Tuesday report on January service sector growth to show a slight slowdown. They also expect the weekly ICSC-UBS chain store sales index on Tuesday to post a decline.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors will release on Thursday its index on pending sales of existing homes, and economists predict a modest increase. And that same day, retailers are releasing their sales results for January.

Investors will also be paying close attention to speeches from Fed officials for insight into their thoughts on the economy and inflation, and whether the central bank is leaning toward lowering rates again when it meets March 18. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, Fed Governor Randall Kroszner, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen are all making public appearances this week.

The bulk of the earnings season is over, but there are some big names left to release their quarterly results. Companies reporting this week include media names such as News Corp. (NWS, Fortune 500), Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) and Time Warner Inc. (TWX, Fortune 500); food sellers like Wendy's International Inc. (WEN) and Yum Brands Inc. (YUM, Fortune 500); and the homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI, Fortune 500).

Microsoft finds new antitrust scrutiny

In a statement released shortly after the bid was made public, Sen. Herb Kohl, chairman of the Senate Antitrust Subcommittee, said, "We will need to scrutinize the deal carefully to insure that it will not cause any harm to the competitiveness of what has been a vibrant high tech marketplace, nor negatively impact the privacy rights of Internet users."

In addition, the Associated Press quoted a Justice Department spokeswoman as saying the agency will look into the competitive consequences of combining the companies, which together own about 32% of the U.S. search market. A department spokeswoman didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

Such scrutiny is to be expected for any large deal involving Microsoft (MSFT:30.45, -2.15, -6.6%) , said Mark Ostrau, an antitrust attorney with Fenwick & West LLP in Mountain View, Calif.

Microsoft settled a Justice Department antitrust case in 2002, and remains under supervision in a Washington court as part of a related consent decree.

Earlier this month the European Commission announced the launch of two fresh probes into the company's competitive behavior, focusing on its Office and Internet browser software.

"Any time I'm asked to analyze a potential deal for a client with Microsoft, and handicap the level of [antitrust] review, I always say, 'You have to add the Microsoft factor'," Ostrau said. "Just about anything Microsoft does gets a close eye, and not without reason."

Microsoft's Windows software provides the digital framework for most PCs sold in the world, while its Office software dominates its respective market. That raises questions about any of Yahoo's extensive technology that could be pulled into either system and shut out competitors, Ostrau said.

Microsoft's bid for Yahoo (YHOO:28.38, +9.20, +48.0%) is widely seen as an effort to bolster competition with mutual rival Google Inc. in the online search and advertising markets. Google (GOOG:515.90, -48.40, -8.6%) has faced its own antitrust scrutiny over its pending acquisition of online advertising company DoubleClick, both here and in Europe.

"As in our recent examination of the Google-DoubleClick deal, we will need to investigate how this combination affects consumers, advertisers and businesses who increasingly use the Internet," Kohl said in his statement.

Ostrau speculated that should Microsoft succeed in buying Yahoo, the matter could get pulled into the consent decree that has Microsoft regularly reporting to a court on its competitive behavior. The decree was recently extended to November 2009, thanks to the efforts of a group of states led by New York.

However Jay Himes, the antitrust chief at the New York Attorney General's Office, said, "The consent decree and the Microsoft offer to buy Yahoo are entirely separate."

Edward Henneberry, co-chair of law firm Heller Ehrman LLP's European Practice Group with a focus on antitrust, said a combination of Microsoft and Yahoo could actually be presented by the companies as a boon for competition in the online advertising market, because it's currently dominated by Google.

"The case for them is they need the sufficient scale to compete with Google, and that'll be good for competition," Henneberry said. "This is going to get reviewed by agencies in the U.S. and Europe, and no one's thinking it won't be, but I wouldn't put any great note on that."

One of the complaints raised about the Google and DoubleClick merger was the large aggregation of user data that would be housed under one roof, theoretically making it more vulnerable to misuse. Such user data is collected by Internet firms to better target advertising.

Jeff Chester, executive director of the Center for Digital Democracy, which has opposed the Google and DoubleClick merger on privacy grounds, objected to Microsoft's bid for Yahoo.
A written statement from Chester said, "In an online era dominated by digital behemoths, consumers will be more vulnerable to having their personal information become the property of the GoogleClicks and Microhoos."

YahooSoft Bid Shakes The Start-Ups

Among the scenarios that have filled the daydreams of Silicon Valley's Internet start-ups are two happy endings: being acquired by Microsoft or being acquired by Yahoo!. So when those giants threaten to merge, as Microsoft proposed Friday with its $44.6 billion bid for Yahoo!, do the hopes of innovative young firms looking for buyouts get squashed in the melee?

The dreams may, at least, be put on hold. According to Microsoft's (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) most recent quarterly Securities and Exchange Commission filing, the company had about $21 billion in liquid assets--down from a peak of $60.6 billion in 2004. The layout for Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people )--which is a half cash-half equity deal--won't leave the $51 billion (annual revenue) software maker broke, but it may sate its appetite for acquisitions for a while.

A more likely reason that a YahooSoft deal could slow down further acquisitions is the red tape involved in a complex integration of bureaucracies. (See "A Messy Marriage.") If the deal closes, it could be months before Yahoo! and Microsoft sort out each other's businesses and are ready to begin integrating new ones, says Aaron Patzer, founder of online accounting start-up Mint.com.

"Right now, everything is going to be in flux," he says. Patzer says he had hoped to foster a partnership with Yahoo! Finance to distribute his free online accounting service. Since winning $50,000 in the TechCrunch 40 start-up, Patzer's Mint.com has also been an attractive buyout target, despite Patzer's claims that he intends to keep the business independent. Regardless, those kinds of deals may be on hold, he says.

"If you're a start-up, you need your own good revenue model now," he says. "If you were depending on getting acquired, combined with a looming recession, you could be in serious trouble in a year."

Patzer worries that even once the dust settles, a YahooSoft conglomerate won't be very friendly to start-ups. "Overall, I don't think it's great for the culture of the Valley. Yahoo! needs young, talented innovators, and the prospect of becoming part of a really large company like Microsoft is not very appealing to start-ups," he says. "They might want to be acquired, but they won't want to join an organization approaching 100,000 people." (Microsoft's head count is approximately 78,500 worldwide, while Yahoo! before the recently announced layoffs had 14,300.)

In recent months, both tech giants have been busy snapping up smaller companies. Microsoft paid $1.2 billion for enterprise search firm Fast Search & Transfer last month. It also bought a London-based Web geolocation company called Webmap in December and invested $250 million for a 2.5% stake in Facebook in October. Jerry Yang's takeover as Yahoo!'s chief executive had some startups predicting a new round of acquisitions. (See "Yahoo's Geek-Speaking CEO.") In September, Yahoo! bought up news aggregator Buzztracker, online ad network BlueLithium and e-mail client Zimbra.

But the merger and acquisition teams at Microsoft and Yahoo! might be "looking inward rather than outward" for the next months, says Jeff Clavier, founder of venture capital firm SoftTech VC, who has sold two Internet start-ups to AOL and one to Yahoo! in the last two years. "Figuring out an integration plan, who stays and who goes, what's important and what's redundant--it takes a long time," says Clavier. "They'll be stretched, and I have a hard time seeing how they could be looking at new talent and ideas."

Longer-term, Clavier says that integrating Yahoo! could make Microsoft a more appealing destination for young firms, partly due to the simple facts of geography. Owning Yahoo! would offer Microsoft better integration with Silicon Valley, and give start-ups an alternative to moving to Washington, he says. "The idea of buying a company, moving it to Redmond, making it part of 'the Borg' is no longer the model," he says, referring to Microsoft's unflattering corporate nickname.

In the meantime, the integration of the two companies may offer a competitive boost to start-ups living in the shadow of Microsoft and Yahoo!. Clavier points out that consolidation means layoffs, and layoffs mean talent that can be snapped up by start-ups. Scott Rafer, the former chief executive of MyBlogLog, a start-up acquired by Yahoo!, says that the YahooSoft deal means the two companies will be bogged down for months while his new firm, called Lookery, continues to innovate.

"We love this kind of stuff," he says. "The people who could actually do us some damage are going from slow to slower."

Lookery, an advertising network for ads that run on Facebook applications, is likely to find itself in direct competition with YahooSoft soon; Facebook struck a deal in August 2006 to place Microsoft ads on the site. Microsoft's latest deal, says Rafer, offers him a much-needed head start.

"We need to get big enough so that they can't just squash us like a bug," says Rafer. "The more time they spend worrying about which division gets merged with which division, the more time we have to grow."

4:10 pm : On Monday, the major indices closed with significant gains, at their best levels of the session. The advance was broad-based with nine of the ten sectors posting a gain in excess of 1%. Financials showed significant strength, leading a late-day surge.

It was shaping up to be another negative day on Wall Street. Asian markets closed sharply lower on fear of a U.S. economic slowdown, and an economic reading on new home sales disappointed. The stock market managed to rebound into positive territory, though, as traders upped their bets for a rate cut and embraced several better than expected earnings reports.

On the economic front, December new home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 which is 4.7% less than last month's reading and is 40.7% less than last year's number. Economists expected sales to come in at 647,000.

The median sales price of a new house in December was $219,200. This equates to a 10.9% price drop year-over-year, the largest decline in nearly four decades. At the current sales rate, there is a 9.6 month supply of new homes. In 2007, there were an estimated 774,000 new homes sold, down 26.4% from 2006.

The number of new home sales is very low, and the large supply of inventory should keep pressure on prices for some time. Homebuilders (+6.4%) shrugged off the negative report. The group is up 36.5% in the last five sessions.

Stocks fell to their session lows shortly after the release, but then recovered into positive territory as traders increased their bets on the size of a fed funds rate cut on Jan. 30.
Fed funds futures currently indicate an 88% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, with a 25 basis point cut fully priced in. Prior to today's action, futures suggested a smaller 70% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

Of the 22 companies that reported earnings this morning, 12 beat expectations, three met, and seven missed. Some of the notable companies that topped estimates include Corning (GLW 23.10, +0.73), Halliburton (HAL 33.55, +0.46), McDonald's (MCD 51.07, -3.03) and Sysco (SYY 28.33, +0.72). McDonald's traded lower though, as traders were disappointed with its flat December U.S. same-store sales. Verizon (VZ 38.11, +0.35) met expectations.

All ten sectors advanced. The financial sector (+3.3%) posted the largest gains, as it stands to benefit from a lower fed funds rate. Beaten down telecoms (+2.6%) came in second. Tech (+0.4%) underperformed on a relative basis due to lack of leadership within the sector.DJ30 +176.72 NASDAQ +23.71 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +2.0% SP400 +2.3% SP500 +23.36 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1052/1929/1.90 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 749/2421/1.35 bln

3:30 pm : The stock market continues to give up ground. Tech (-0.5%) is leading the retreat, which sent the Nasdaq briefly into negative territory. Apple (AAPL 128.27, -1.74) is playing a large role in the tech sector's reversal, as it went from a leader to a laggard.

After the close, 29 companies will be reporting earnings including Dow component American Express (AXP 46.70, +1.26). President Bush will address the nation is his annual State of the Union address at 9:00 P.M. ET. It is being reported that the state of the economy and the proposed fiscal stimulus package will be focal points.

Before the open tomorrow, 55 companies are reporting their earnings. Notable companies include 3M (MMM 76.90, +1.39), Dow Chemical (DOW 36.97, +0.66) and Countrywide Financial (CFC 5.94, -0.08).DJ30 +79.66 NASDAQ +3.15 SP500 +11.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1159/1801/1.59 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 851/2306/1.12 bln

3:00 pm : Stocks retreat off their highs, but are still holding onto strong gains. The recent retreat was concentrated in the tech sector, which is now trading 0.1% lower.
Shares of Nymex Holdings (NMX 114.50, +7.34) are posting significant gains. CME Group (CME 619.81, -9.19) and Nymex confirmed rumors that they are in preliminary discussions regarding CME's potential acquisition of Nymex. The companies have agreed to a 30-day exclusive negotiating period.

In other acquisition news, shares of Alliance Data (ADS 42.10, -23.50) are sharply lower after the company indicated its acquisition by affiliates of The Blackstone Group may not happen. Blackstone had told Alliance that it does not anticipate the condition to close the merger related to obtaining approvals from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency will be satisfied.DJ30 +82.75 NASDAQ +10.32 SP500 +12.57 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1017/1927/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 766/2390/1.02 bln

2:25 pm : Stocks hit fresh intraday highs in recent trade. Support has been broad based, with eight of the ten sectors advancing more than 1%. Energy (+0.5%) and consumer staples (+0.9%) are the laggards. Financials (+2.1%) continue to pace this session's advance. In currency trading, the dollar is down 0.7% against the euro. Against a basket of leading world currencies, the dollar is down 0.57%. DJ30 +130.55 NASDAQ +19.93 SP500 +17.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1077/1834/1.28 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 886/2237/914 mln

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to post sold gains, as the major indices trade near their session highs.
Market breadth leans bullish. Advancers outpace decliners by 5-to-2 on the NYSE, and by 5-to-3 on the Nasdaq. Volume is on the heavy side, as it has been of late.

Gold closed the session up $16.00 to $926.70 per ounce, slightly lower than its new all-time intraday high of $929.80 that was reached in earlier trade.DJ30 +95.11 NASDAQ +15.93 SP500 +12.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1112/1773/1.18 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 888/2222/841 mln

1:30 pm : The S&P 500 and Dow climb to fresh session highs. The financial (+2.0%) and energy (+1.6%) sectors are lending support. Energy has extended its gains as crude oil (+0.2% to $90.91) recovers into positive territory. The Nasdaq is trailing, as tech (+0.5%) is a notable laggard.

72 of the 100 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 Index are posting a gain. Weakness in Microsoft (MSFT 32.57, -0.37), Google (GOOG 559.55, -6.85) and Yahoo! (YHOO 20.90, -1.04) are offsetting Apple's (AAPL 131.08, +1.10) advance.DJ30 +93.00 NASDAQ +14.13 SP500 +13.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1168/1714/1.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 984/2089/747 mln

1:00 pm : The major indices regain some ground, with notable strength in financials (+1.6%).
351 stocks in the S&P 500 have advanced this session. Bank of America (BAC 40.64, +1.16), Merck (MRK 49.11, +1.32) and General Electric (GE 34.35, +0.35) are pacing the advance. The main laggards are McDonald's (MCD 50.58, -3.52), Microsoft (MSFT 32.48, -0.46) and Google (GOOG 559.36, -7.04). Two stocks in the index hit new 52-week highs, and two stocks hit 52-week lowsDJ30 +71.78 NASDAQ +7.03 SP500 +10.41 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1277/1586/971 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 995/2054/679 mln

12:30 pm : The major indices are holding onto modest gains, but remain off their best levels. All ten sectors remain in positive territory.

Gold continues to climb higher, hitting a fresh all time high of $929.80 per ounce. Silver has hit multi-year highs, and is currently up 1.5% to $16.73 per ounce.DJ30 +46.34 NASDAQ +7.19 SP500 +7.46 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1245/1587/886 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1063/1976/624 mln

12:00 pm : After some choppy action in the early-going stocks are posting modest gains at midday. Several better than expected earnings reports and increased bets on a rate cut helped offset steep declines in Asian markets and worse than expected new home sales data.

Of the 22 companies that reported earnings this morning, 12 beat expectations, three met, and seven missed. Some of the notable companies that topped estimates include Corning (GLW 23.17, +0.80), Halliburton (HAL 33.51, +0.42), McDonald's (MCD 51.14, -2.96) and Sysco (SYY 27.97, +0.36). McDonald's is trading lower though, as traders were disappointed with its flat December U.S. same-store sales. Verizon (VZ 37.21, -0.55) met expectations.

On the economic front, December new home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 which is 4.7% less than last month's reading and is 40.7% less than last year's number. Economists expected sales to come in at 647,000.

The median sales price of a new house in December was $219,200. This equates to a 10.9% price drop year-over-year, the largest decline in nearly four decades. At the current sales rate, there is a 9.6 month supply of new homes. In 2007, there were an estimated 774,000 new homes sold, down 26.4% from 2006.

The number of sales is very low, and the large supply of inventory should keep pressure on prices for some time. Homebuilders (+1.3%) shrugged off the negative report.

Stocks fell to their session lows shortly after the release, but then recovered into positive territory as traders increase their bets on the size of a Fed Funds rate cut on Jan. 30. Fed funds futures currently indicate an 88% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, with a 25 basis point cut full priced in. Prior to today's action, futures suggested a smaller 70% chance of a 50 basis point cut, with a 25 basis point cut fully priced in.

Sharp declines in Asian markets on concerns of a U.S. economic slowdown weighed on U.S. stocks in pre-market trading. European markets were also lower, but pared most of their losses as U.S. stocks advanced.

All sectors are higher this session. Financials lead the way with a 1.6% advance. Consumer discretionary is underperforming on a relative basis with a 0.3% gain.DJ30 +59.10 NASDAQ +10.79 SP500 +10.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1142/1656/767 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1001/1987/521 mln

11:30 am : The major indices continue to post modest gains. U.S. Senate Democrats have added a jobless benefits extension and senior citizen rebates to the stimulus bill, according to Dow Jones.

Gold hit an all-time high of $924.80 per ounce before easing a bit. Gold is currently up 1.2% to $921.30 per ounce.DJ30 +58.29 NASDAQ +9.91 SP500 +9.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1178/1578/650 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1004/1967/433 mln

11:00 am : Stocks climb to their best levels of the session in a broad-based move. All ten sectors are in positive territory.

Financials (+1.6%) is leading the rebound with all 19 of its industry groups in the green. Industrial REITs is posting a 2.3% gain and regional banks is up 1.8%.
Even the energy sector (+1.0%) has rebounded into the green, despite a 1.4% slide in crude oil prices.DJ30 +53.36 NASDAQ +6.68 SP500 +7.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1446/1271/508 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1476/1445/322 mln

10:30 am : Stocks recover after falling to fresh session lows on the weak new home sales data. Utilities are leading the recovery effort with a gain of 1.3%. Meanwhile, telecom (-0.5%) pares most of its losses.

With regard to the new home sales data, the December seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 is 4.7% less than last month's reading and is 40.7% less than last year's number. The median sales price of a new house in December was $219,200. This equates to a 10.9% price drop year-over-year, the largest decline in nearly four decades. At the current sales rate, there is a 9.6 month supply of new homes. In 2007, there were an estimated 774,000 new homes sold, down 26.4% from 2006.

The number of sales is very low, and the large supply of inventory should keep pressure on prices for some time. Homebuilders are down 2.7% this session.DJ30 +6.91 NASDAQ -2.28 SP500 +2.60 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1632/1008/342 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1763/1100/205 mln

10:05 am : Just hitting the wires, the U.S. Dept. of Commerce said December new home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604K. Economists were expecting sales to hold at 647K. November's reading was revised downward to 634K. Stocks had climbed back to the unchanged mark, but fell back into the red after the disappointing data.

Three of the ten sectors are trending higher. Utilities is leading the way with a 0.6% advance. Telecom is the main laggard with a 1.7% drop, as it continues its poor showing this year.DJ30 -74.87 NASDAQ -13.77 SP500 -6.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1624/790/120 mln

09:40 am : The stock market dips into the red after opening on a slightly higher note. Foreign markets saw another day of steep declined on fears of U.S. economic slowdown. Japan's Nikkei fell 4.0% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 4.3%. Goldman Sachs said in a report dated Jan. 25 that Japan is either already in a recession or is very likely to do so in the first quarter, according to SCMP.com.

Earnings news leaned bullish. McDonald's (MCD), Corning (GLW), Sysco (SYY) and Halliburton (HAL) topped earnings expectations. Verizon (VZ) came in-line with expectations. McDonald's is trading lower though, as investors were disappointed with its flat December U.S. same-store sales.DJ30 -53.57 NASDAQ -16.76 SP500 -4.97

09:13 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0.

08:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Stock futures shed a few points and suggest a slightly lower open. The Dec. new home sales report is set for release at 10:00 ET. Economists are expected a reading of 645K.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. S&P 500 futures are now pointing to a flat open as investors respond positively to this morning's earnings reports. McDonald’s (MCD) announced its dividends declared will now be paid on a quarterly basis. Nasdaq futures are pointing to a slightly lower open.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.0. Futures indicate a lower start for stock market after foreign markets fell sharply on concerns of U.S. economic slowdown. Japan closed down 4.0% and Hong Kong ended its session 4.4% lower. Earnings reports have lifted futures off their worst levels. Verizon (VZ) reported earnings in-line with expectations. Corning (GLW) topped earnings expectations by one cent and issued first quarter earnings guidance above the consensus estimate. McDonald’s (MCD) beat expectations by $0.02.

06:18 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.3.

06:18 am : FTSE...5761.40...-107.60...-1.8%. DAX...6709.27...-107.47...-1.6%.

06:18 am : Nikkei...13087.91...-541.25...-4.0%. Hang Seng...24053.61...-1068.76...-4.3%.