Starbucks Hikes Prices, Customers Take a Hike?

In the midst of a nasty recession, will customers want to pay more for their daily cuppa joe? Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) may soon find out.

In some markets, the java giant is adjusting prices on what it calls "more complex" beverages. Some venti-sized fancy drinks will cost as much as a quarter more than they used to, but other drinks will decline in price by an average of $0.05 to $0.15.

Starbucks heralded these price changes back in April, and it's hardly clueless about the possible impact. In a memo to baristas, the company warned that its employees should "expect customers to be sensitive to pricing changes in this economic climate." In response, the chain apparently encourages baristas tell customers that the coffee giant is looking for ways to provide value. I'm not sure customers who are paying a quarter more will buy that line of thinking, but those paying a bit less just might.

Hiking prices could make sense if Starbucks wants to reestablish its credibility as a premium coffee purveyor. I could hardly complain about that, given my previous concerns that some of the company's "value" initiatives might tarnish its brand. Still, miffed customers could turn to many alternatives, including Peet's (Nasdaq: PEET), Caribou, and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR). And nobody underestimates the power of lower-end competition like McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) or Dunkin' Donuts, either.

Nor should we forget Starbucks' diminished traffic. Companies like Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) (NYSE: CMG-B) and Panera Bread (Nasdaq: PNRA) have successfully raised menu prices to offset flagging customer visits, but that's a dangerous game to play. Given its current precarious position, I have to wonder whether Starbucks should have left well enough alone.

Fed interest-rate cuts

In a gloomy market, where the headlines have been dominated by crisis and interest-rate cuts, a lot of consumers have figured that they would at least get some payback when the rate cuts hit home.

For that to happen, however, consumers are going to have to work for it and make some moves that they might not have been expecting.

But what the rate situation is making plain is that for any consumer carrying debt and nervous about the stock market and inflation the best way to increase net worth is likely to come from refinancing and paying off debt.

That said, it won't be mortgages that lead the way in refinancing. Mortgage rates tend to be tied more to Treasury yields than to the short-term rates that the Federal Reserve is cutting, so while consumers may expect a Fed cut to help them out at home, there's no guarantee.

In general, long-term rates like mortgages move in sync with short-term rates because the cuts are being made in order to help a slowing economy; what makes today's situation different is that the cuts are being made to stem a financial crisis that occurred without a recession. Lacking that downward stimulus, longer-term rates have not followed the short-term made-to-bail-out-the-market-now trend.

The only plus for consumers is that rates on adjustable-rate mortgages have dropped, so that the mortgage resets that were expected to crush consumers -- as debts they took on a few years back were repriced to much higher levels -- have actually not been such a big burden. In some cases, the reset rate has actually been better than the introductory rate.

"This has helped people who got into trouble with ARMs," says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst for BankRate.com, "but for almost every other consumer, this news hasn't been so good."

The one sure outcome of a Fed rate cut is that savings rates are going down. For savers, that has dropped rates on certificates of deposit and money-market accounts back towards the record lows they didn't expect to see for awhile. The average one-year CD is now paying 2.89%, down from just over 3% a week ago and likely to fall further before stabilizing.

"Savers are watching two things happen right before their eyes," McBride says. "First, they are seeing savings rates go back to levels where they have to wonder if it's worth it, and they are watching each rate cut fuel inflation, which makes it harder for their savings to keep pace with inflation."

In fact, most savings vehicles currently lag inflation, meaning that the nervous investor who wants to find a safe haven to avoid principle risk in the stock market is, in fact, embracing purchasing-power risk -- the chance that their money will lag inflation -- if they move money into savings vehicles.

Not 'going to get into a fight' with Microsoft

News Corp. (NWS.A:17.79, -0.37, -2.0%) (NWS) Chairman Rupert Murdoch reiterated Monday that the company has no interest in getting into a bidding war with Microsoft (MSFT) over Yahoo (YHOO) . "Yahoo missed out," Murdoch said of the search engine and portal, having acquired Overture several years ago, only to underspend on it and watch Google (GOOG) overtake Yahoo with a more than 60% share of the search engine market share in the U.S. "We're very happy to be in the Google camp," Murdoch went on. "They sell out search advertising, and they pay us well for it." News Corp. is the parent company of Dow Jones, which includes MarketWatch.