Google Paid Clicks

New data confirming slowing growth in Google Inc.'s paid clicks renewed debate Thursday on Wall Street over whether the Internet search company's revenue can quickly adjust to changes it made in how it generates clicks.

Citing data that comScore Inc. released after the market closed on Wednesday, analysts said growth in Google's click-through rate has nearly ground to a halt.

Google's stock closed down $14.11, or 3.1 percent, to $444.08 in afternoon trading.

The click-through rate grew 3 percent in February compared to a year earlier, and January saw no increase compared to January 2007. Several months earlier, the rate was growing 25 percent to 40 percent compared to a year earlier. The new data is in line with click-through declines Google reported last quarter.

Google, which gets paid when users click on a sponsored ad that comes up as the result of a Google search, has reported steadily rising per-click revenue.

The Mountain View-based company said in January that the drop in click-through rates is a result of its efforts to boost the usefulness of each click to its advertisers' sales performance. For instance, the company decreased the space around a word that would result in a click, so more clicks would be intentional.

Analysts disagree on how long it will take Google's per-click revenue to adjust to any increased value per click it has created.

Rob Sanderson, an analyst with American Technology Research, said per-click revenue will rise immediately if advertisers see more value in each click, because they'll pay more for them at auction.

"It's not clicks that advertisers are really buying, it's what those clicks get them, which is sales conversions," said Sanderson.

Colin Gillis, an Internet analyst at Canaccord Adams, also was optimistic.

"It's very difficult to spin this as positive data point, but it also doesn't mean the world is ending," Gillis said.

The click-through rate is only one piece of the equation for Google, he said.

"The counter point is that Google is out there saying, 'We are trying to make our clicks more worthwhile.' They want to actually deliver relevant hot leads to their customers because that's what their customers want," Gillis said.

Other analysts disagreed.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster predicted Google will fall short of Wall Street expectations in the current quarter because of the click-through rate.

Lehman Brothers analyst Doug Anmuth cut his 2008 profit estimate for Google and reduced his price target to $580 per share from $644, citing the click-through rates.

He also said advertisers may be trimming their budgets -- and not responding to the changes Google has made.

Google, which reports first quarter earnings April 17, declined to comment on the comScore data.

Numbers from comScore are closely watched by some industry analysts, even though the firm uses online recruitment techniques dismissed by many traditional pollsters.

Sanderson said comScore's numbers have a wide margin of error and can't be used to predict quarterly results.

"ComScore data has a really wide range of plus or minus in terms of being accurate. They don't know what the real number is, it's just a sample," he said.

JPMorgan Could Up Bear Offer

JPMorgan Chase & Co. was discussing a deal that would increase fivefold its offer for Bear Stearns Cos. to $10 a share, The New York Times reported Monday.

The talks Sunday were an attempt to satisfy Bear Stearns stockholders upset over JPMorgan's offer of $2 a share for the struggling investment bank, the newspaper said on its Web site, citing people involved in the negotiations.

The original price for Bear Stearns was part of a deal struck last week at the urging of the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department.

The Fed, which would need to approve any change in the agreement, was balking at the new price, the Times said. Such opposition could postpone the new agreement or derail it entirely.

In an attempt to speed majority shareholder approval, Bears board was trying to authorize the sale of 39.5 percent of the firm to JPMorgan, the Times said. State law in Delaware, where the companies are incorporated, allows a company to sell up to 40 percent without shareholder approval.

A spokeswoman for JPMorgan declined to comment Sunday night, the Times said. A Bear Stearns representative could not be reached.

A spokesman for the Federal Reserve would not comment on the central banks involvement in the negotiations, but denied it had directed the original sale price, the newspaper said.

Alitalia Accepts AirFrance KLM Bid

Alitalia's board on Sunday unanimously accepted Air France-KLM's bid valued at $1.1 billion in a move to save the struggling national carrier.

The Air France-KLM offer values the airline at 139 million euros ($216 million), far less than expected, based on a share swap of 1 Air France share for every 160 Alitalia shares. The Franco-Dutch carrier also said it will pay euro608 million ($946 million) for convertible shares.

Air France said it will inject euro1 billion ($1.56 billion) in capital once the deal is complete.

Alitalia's board issued a statement accepting the offer after a meeting that went some 16 hours into early Sunday. Air France said it was "happy" with Alitalia's decision.

Air France has said it wants to have union approval before the deal is completed. It also must be approved by the Italian government, which is selling its 50 percent share, as well as the stock market regulator and EU competition authorities.

Air France said it expected to have government and regulatory approvals within the first half of 2008.

Air France said it plans to relaunch Alitalia with an industrial and restructuring plan that will allow the Italian carrier "to rediscover the means of its development and to consolidate its status as a national leader." Alitalia will maintain its national identity within the Air France-KLM group, the carrier said in a statement.

Air France said it expected to be profitable by 2009.

Alitalia has been losing euro1 million ($1.56 million) a day, and its cash reserves were down to just euro282 million ($439 million)at the end of January, nearly a 25 percent drop from a month earlier.

The outgoing center-left government of Romano Prodi has been trying for more than a year to sell Alitalia. It's decision to enter exclusive talks with Air France-KLM has been met with opposition by unions concerned about jobs and backers of Milan's Malpensa airport, which would lose its status as a hub. Air France intends to maintain just one hub for Alitalia, at Rome's Leonardo da Vinci airport.

Opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi, who is favored to win national elections next month, recently said he could accept an Air France-KLM purchase of Alitalia if the Italian carrier maintains its national identity, backing down from his opposition to the deal.

EU approves Google's DoubleClick bid

European Union regulators say Internet portal giant's $3.1 billion bid for online ad tracker won't hurt competition.

European Union regulators have given a green light to Google Inc.'s $3.1 billion (€2.13 billion) bid for online ad tracker DoubleClick, saying the deal will not hurt competition for online ads.
Critics have complained the deal would give Google (GOOG) too much power.

But the European Commission says it found no proof that Google and DoubleClick would be able to squeeze out competitors. That is because Microsoft, (MSFT) Yahoo (YHOO) and AOL provided "credible" alternatives for placing ads on Web sites.

The commission says Google and DoubleClick are not currently rivals. It says Google's purchase even of a potential competitor would not hurt competition in the online ad market.

Not 'going to get into a fight' with Microsoft

News Corp. (NWS.A:17.79, -0.37, -2.0%) (NWS) Chairman Rupert Murdoch reiterated Monday that the company has no interest in getting into a bidding war with Microsoft (MSFT) over Yahoo (YHOO) . "Yahoo missed out," Murdoch said of the search engine and portal, having acquired Overture several years ago, only to underspend on it and watch Google (GOOG) overtake Yahoo with a more than 60% share of the search engine market share in the U.S. "We're very happy to be in the Google camp," Murdoch went on. "They sell out search advertising, and they pay us well for it." News Corp. is the parent company of Dow Jones, which includes MarketWatch.

U.S. stocks brace for more volatility next week

U.S. stocks are poised for more volatility and losses next week, with investors digesting the past week's turbulence, including further evidence suggesting that the U.S. economy is in recession and that the credit crisis shows no signs of abating.

The past week saw an acceleration of the troubles in credit markets, where investors find it increasingly hard to assign value to debt instruments as a result of the bad loans that have surfaced on the balance sheets of financial institutions worldwide.

"We can be sure that this won't go away anytime soon," said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of the U.S. equity group at Deutsche Bank. "We'll see more news of banks having trouble raising capital and more news pointing to the fact that we're in a recession."

Stocks took another hit on Friday after news that the U.S. economy lost 63,000 jobs in February, the largest drop since March 2003 and marking the second drop in a row in monthly employment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:^DJI) lost 146 points, or 1.2%, to end at (DJI:^DJI) 11,893, capping a 2.8% weekly decline.

The S&P 500 Index fell 10.97 points to 1,293.37, down 2.8% on the week, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) shed 8.01 points to 2,212.49, off 2.6% on the week.

The Federal Reserve also intervened to boost liquidity ahead of the jobs report, somewhat cushioning its impact. Credit markets also had become increasingly volatile since earlier in the week, after a default at mortgage lender Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (NYSE:TMA) and a litany of other problems at other financial institutions.

Financials stocks ended Friday's session mixed with Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) off 1.3%, while J.P. Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) was up 0.5%, and American Express Co. (NYSE:AXP) 0.6% higher.

"Friday's market action is not going to satisfy anybody," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist at Covered Bridge Tactical. "The bulls did not get the recovery they'd hoped, and the bears did not get the collapse they wanted to get. There will be a lot of uncertainty and disgruntlement over the weekend."

Following the jobs report, market odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in March jumped to 96%. The move would bring the central bank's key rate to 2.25%.

Investors next week will sift through more data that could point to economic weakness, though the first three trading sessions of the week will be relatively light on indicators.

On Thursday, February retail sales, weekly jobless claims, January business inventories and import prices for last month will be released.

Friday will bring a consumer-sentiment survey and the key consumer-price index for February, which will be watched closely for signs of inflation.

Commodities continued their rally over the past week. Crude futures touched a record high of $106.54 Friday.

The dollar dropped to a new low against the euro Friday, with the European currency hitting $1.5463. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities, such as oil, less expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

Among key reasons cited by traders for the continued surge are that investors fleeing dollar-denominated assets are increasingly turning to commodities to seek a safe haven.
Other beneficiaries of market turmoil have been Treasury bonds, which typically serve as a safe haven.

Some analysts believe that the current trends in U.S. markets will continue until the global economy also gets hit, which would force other central banks to also cut interest rates, putting pressure on their currencies.

But U.S. stocks could take an even turn for the worst once this happens, according to Joshua Rosner, analyst at Graham Fisher, as current dollar weakness has provided support in making dollar-denominated assets more attractive. "Once foreign central banks start to cut rates and the dollar strengthens relative to those foreign currencies, we are likely to see capital flight from our equity markets," he wrote in a note.

Among profit reports of interest next week, will be Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN) , which reports on Monday along with Blackstone Group (NYSE:BX) , Foot Locker (NYSE:FL) and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE:HOV)

7 Stocks You Need to Know for Monday

Stocks tumbled on Friday after American International Group reported its biggest loss ever, sending shock waves through the market and causing widespread selling of financial stocks.

The Dow lost -315.79, the Nasdaq Composite -60.09 and the S&P 500 lost -37.05.

American International Group's (NYSE:AIG) record $5.29 billion loss led to widespread selling on Friday. AIG's Short Term PowerRating is 4.

Meanwhile, a 6% decline in quarterly profit at Dell (NasdaqGS:DELL) weighed on the technology sector. DELL's Short Term PowerRating is 4.

After the market close, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A) reported an 18% decline in fourth quarter profit and warned investors that "insurance-industry profit margins, including ours, will fall significantly in 2008". BRKA's Short Term PowerRating is 5.

Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) won a $35 billion contract to build air refueling tankers. NOC's Short Term PowerRating is 6.

The news Northrop Grumman was a major blow to market leader Boeing (NYSE:BA). BA's Short Term PowerRating is 5.

Late on Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Countrywide Financial (NYSE:CFC) may be sanctioned for "alleged abuses of the bankruptcy system." CFC's Short Term PowerRating is 5.

And finally, do you think Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER) will close up or down on Tuesday? Short Term PowerRating is 5. Play TradingMarkets Up or Down Daily Stock Contest for the chance to win $1000 every month by predicting the direction of a stock.

Dow, S&P 500 drop,Nasdaq up

The Dow and the S&P 500 dropped on Friday as concerns about the outlook of bond insurers weighed on financial shares, but bargain hunting in the technology sector pulled the Nasdaq into positive territory.

Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM - News) dropped 1.7 percent, and led the Dow's losers, while credit card and travel services company American Express Co (NYSE:AXP - News) slid 2 percent.

The drag from financial shares was driven in part by investor unease about the outlook for bond insurers after Moody's Investors Services cut its "AAA" ratings for bond insurer XL Capital Assurance, a unit of Security Capital Assurance (NYSE:SCA - News).
Comments from a Federal Reserve official saying a recession might not be avoidable were another headwind for stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) was down 67.06 points, or 0.55 percent, at 12,179.94. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) was down 6.00 points, or 0.45 percent, at 1,330.91. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) was up 3.59 points, or 0.16 percent, at 2,296.62.

Investors fear that downgrades of bond insurers could further harm the banking sector and stunt the global economy as financial institutions take a hit from subsequent write-downs of their assets.

JPMorgan shares fell to $44.23 on the New York Stock Exchange, while shares of American Express dropped to $45.55.

Shares of MBIA Inc (NYSE:MBI - News), the world's largest bond insurer, slipped by 0.4 percent to $14.12.

The company on Thursday sold $1 billion of shares to raise capital it hopes will help it avoid a rating downgrade. The sale was at a discount to MBIA's closing price.

On the Nasdaq, Apple Inc (NasdaqGS:AAPL - News) provided the biggest lift to the index, with a gain of 1.7 percent to $123.24. Tech stocks recently have taken a beating as investors worried about business spending, making some stocks attractively priced.
as attractive valuations lured investors to seek bargains.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen, speaking in Honolulu, indicated on Thursday a willingness to cut U.S. interest rates further, but she said she was not confident a recession can be avoided this year.

Friday Market slips at open

Stocks opened lower on Friday after a Federal Reserve official said a recession might not be avoidable and fresh concerns arose about the outlook for bond insurers.

The Dow Jones industrial average (DJI:^DJI - News) was down 39.10 points, or 0.32 percent, at 12,207.90. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (^SPX - News) was down 5.16 points, or 0.39 percent, at 1,331.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq:^IXIC - News) was down 3.29 points, or 0.14 percent, at 2,289.74.

This Is a Report By Tarek El Hewehi.

Stocks Finish Higher After Fitful Day

Wall Street finished moderately higher in fitful trading Thursday as investors, still nervous about the economy, decided to buy back into a stock market pummeled by three straight days of losses.

With the market having largely priced in the possibility of a recession, many believe there are plenty of valuable stocks at cheap prices. Before Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average had fallen this week by 543 points, or 4.26 percent, giving up all of last week's sharp gains.
Though the market ended up rising Thursday, trading was extremely fickle due to a batch of gloomy data that included declining January sales at major retailers, a drop in December sales of pending homes, and a disappointing outlook from Internet networking supplier Cisco Systems Inc. The major indexes seesawed throughout the day.

"We're kind of trying to create a silk purse out of a sow's ear here," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors. "The earnings are lousy, the economic numbers are lousy."

The Dow rose 46.90, or 0.38 percent, to 12,247.00 after trading down about 80 points and up about 130. The index remains more than 13 percent below its record close on Oct. 9, 2007 of 14,164.53.

Broader stock indicators also recovered some ground. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 10.46, or 0.79 percent, to 1,336.91. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index rose 14.28, or 0.63 percent, to 2,293.03.

Government bonds fell. The 10-year Treasury note's yield, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.76 percent from 3.60 percent late Wednesday.

Investors may have been encouraged to buy back into stocks due to a rise in the dollar, whose decline over the past several months has contributed to worries about inflation and a possible drop in foreign interest in U.S. investments.

Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners, said the dollar's advance followed remarks by European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet that the United States and Europe remain economically intertwined. This suggested to investors that strength in other countries can help stabilize the United States during its rough patch. Fears of a global economic slowdown have been weighing on stocks around the world.

As expected on Thursday, the Bank of England lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 5.25 percent, its second cut in three months, while the European Central Bank left its key rate unchanged at 4 percent.

Another argument for bargain hunting Thursday was that the recent spate of negative economic data raises the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates again to spur growth. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said Thursday the Fed's "focus, religiously, is on the general economy, the real economy."

Moreover, the stock market often portends economic declines, rather than the other way around.

"Stocks do worse during times of slow growth than they do during recession," said Brian Gendreau, investment strategist for ING Investment Management. "If we're in a shallow and short recession, for all anyone knows, we might be halfway through."

The market's indecisive movements throughout the day show, however, that it has not moved past the many worries swirling about personal spending, the crumpling housing market and deteriorating conditions in consumer credit.

Late Wednesday, Internet networking supplier Cisco Systems Inc. issued a 10 percent sales growth forecast for its current quarter that fell well below the 15 percent Wall Street projected. But Cisco finished up 30 cents at $23.38, after some investors saw the stock was undervalued.
And in a counterintuitive move, retail stocks -- also regarded as cheap right now -- rose even after the nation's retailers logged their worst January in about 40 years. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. reported a 0.5 percent rise in January same-store sales, or sales at stores open for at least a year, while Target Corp., Gap Inc., Limited Brands Inc. and AnnTaylor Stores Corp. each said their sales fell.

Not all news about retailing was bad -- J.C. Penney Co. raised its earnings forecast for the last three months of 2007. Its stock jumped $3.72, or 8.5 percent, to $47.44.

But on top of the mostly weak retail reports, the Labor Department reported that jobless claims fell last week by 22,000, a smaller decline than many economists predicted, and the National Association of Realtors said pending sales of existing homes fell 1.5 percent in December.

Light, sweet crude oil rose 97 cents to settle at $88.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold prices also climbed.

Oil prices had been gradually declining, so it's possible a slower economy is keeping inflation from accelerating. Still, many market participants are anxious about how much longer the Fed can continue to lower interest rates given relatively high food and energy costs.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 10.29, or 1.49 percent, to 702.78.
Advancing issues outnumbered declining shares by nearly 2 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 4.44 billion shares, down from 3.89 billion on Wednesday.

Overseas, many Asian markets were closed for a holiday, but Japan's stock market was open and its Nikkei average rose 0.82 percent. In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 2.58 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.66 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 1.92 percent.

Wall St. awaits another rally

This week, Wall Street hopes economic, earnings data keeps rally going

The stock market has been on the upswing, but few investors are relaxing just yet. This week's data on housing, retailers and labor costs will give Wall Street an idea of whether the economy is weakening or inflation is accelerating - or both.

Wall Street had a case of the winter blues in January, and understandably. With banks reporting huge losses, uncertainty brewing about whether the economy is in recession, and Americans struggling to keep up with their debt payments, there was nowhere to go but down. The Standard & Poor's 500 index recorded its worst January since 1990.

But the stock market has bounced back - last week, the Dow Jones industrial average jumped 4.39 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index added 3.75 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 4.87 percent.

The Dow remains 10 percent below the record close of 14,164.53 it reached on Oct. 9, but has recovered nearly 10 percent from the 15-month lows it hit in January.

There were many factors that helped buoy the market last week. The Federal Reserve met the market's hopes for another big rate cut by slashing key rates a half-point. Banks and regulators indicated they are working to help out the distressed companies that insure mortgage-backed bonds. And Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT, Fortune 500) bid for the struggling Internet provider Yahoo Inc. (YHOO, Fortune 500) reassured Wall Street that although the credit markets are tight, deals are being pitched.

Recent government reports have not painted a rosy picture of the economy, but they haven't indicated the nation is in the midst of a deep recession, either.

The Labor Department's employment report last week showed a net job loss in January for the first time in four years, but a report from the Institute for Supply Management said the manufacturing sector expanded. The Commerce Department said personal spending is growing at the weakest pace in more than a year, but it also reported a solid gain in orders of big-ticket, durable goods.

The markets are angling for more rate cuts to stoke the economy, but what could tie the Fed's hands is inflation. High food, energy and healthcare costs are a reason consumers - particularly homeowners with tough-to-pay mortgages - are cutting back on discretionary spending. Those high prices may also be the only reason readings on personal spending are in positive territory.

The Commerce Department's index last week for personal consumption expenditures, a gauge of inflation, rose 0.2 percent in December from November levels. This week, the Labor Department reports on productivity and labor costs; the market is expecting labor costs to decline, and could be disappointed if they end up being higher.

"The worst of all possible worlds is stagflation," said Janna Sampson, director of portfolio management at Oakbrook Investments. Stagflation happens when the economy weakens at the same time prices are rising. It's a problem that can't be solved with rate moves; rate cuts spur inflation but boost growth, while hikes control inflation but also dampen growth.

This week, economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR are preparing for more signs that the economy is still growing, but very slowly because of a weak consumer.

They expect the Commerce Department's December factory orders index on Monday to tick up and the Institute for Supply Management's Tuesday report on January service sector growth to show a slight slowdown. They also expect the weekly ICSC-UBS chain store sales index on Tuesday to post a decline.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors will release on Thursday its index on pending sales of existing homes, and economists predict a modest increase. And that same day, retailers are releasing their sales results for January.

Investors will also be paying close attention to speeches from Fed officials for insight into their thoughts on the economy and inflation, and whether the central bank is leaning toward lowering rates again when it meets March 18. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, Fed Governor Randall Kroszner, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen are all making public appearances this week.

The bulk of the earnings season is over, but there are some big names left to release their quarterly results. Companies reporting this week include media names such as News Corp. (NWS, Fortune 500), Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) and Time Warner Inc. (TWX, Fortune 500); food sellers like Wendy's International Inc. (WEN) and Yum Brands Inc. (YUM, Fortune 500); and the homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI, Fortune 500).

Microsoft Eyes Yahoo to Topple Google

Unable to topple Google Inc. on its own, Microsoft Corp. is trying to force crippled rival Yahoo Inc. into a shotgun marriage, with a wager worth nearly $42 billion that the two companies together will have a better chance of tackling the Internet search leader

Microsoft's audacious attempt to buy Yahoo, spelled out in an unsolicited offer announced Friday, shows just how much Google threatens the world's largest software maker's grip on how people interact with computers.

For Yahoo, the bid represents another painful reminder of how missed opportunities and mismanagement combined to open the door for Google to supplant it as the Internet's main gateway, decimating its stock price in the process.

Redmond, Wash.-based Microsoft is trying to avoid a similar fate at Google's hands as more people access services and computer programs online instead of relying on packaged software applications.

Although Microsoft remains the world's most valuable technology company, its position will become more precarious unless it can cultivate a more loyal Internet audience and generate more online ad revenue to subsidize the free services taken for granted on the Internet.
Microsoft is acutely aware of the upheaval that can be caused by a pivotal shift in technology, having been the biggest beneficiary during the 1980s and 1990s of a transition from mainframe computers to personal computers that knocked IBM Corp. off its pedestal.

"Microsoft has to do this deal. It's a battle that Microsoft needs to win," said AMR Research analyst Jonathan Yarmis.

But there's no guarantee that Yahoo will be willing to sell to Microsoft -- or that the deal will win the necessary approvals from antitrust regulators in the United States and Europe if Yahoo capitulates.

Sunnyvale-based Yahoo had little to say Friday beyond a terse statement assuring its shareholders that its board will "carefully and promptly" study the bid.

In a conference call Friday, Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer indicated he won't take no for an answer after Yahoo rebuffed takeover overtures a year ago.

"This is a decision we have -- and I have -- thought long and hard about," Ballmer said. "We are confident it's the right path for Microsoft and Yahoo."

Yahoo will likely face intense pressure to accept, given its steadily sliding profits and a murky 2008 outlook that caused its stock price to drop to a four-year low earlier this week.

Microsoft's $31-per-share offer -- originally valued at $44.6 billion -- represented a 62 percent premium to Yahoo's closing price late Thursday, although it's below Yahoo's 52-week high of $34.08 reached less than four months ago. On Friday, the total value of the cash-and-stock deal fell to $41.7 billion, or $28.95 per share, because Microsoft's shares declined on the news.

Yahoo shares soared to a split-adjusted high of $118.75 in 2000 before the dot-com bust. That peak coincidentally also was just before Yahoo gave Google its first big break by hiring it to run its search engine.

Search engines are crucial tools because they have become a central hub in hugely profitable ad networks.

Advertisers around the world are expected to double their spending on the Internet during the next three years as more people get their news and entertainment on the Web instead of television, radio, newspapers and magazines. The trend is expected to create an $80 billion online ad market in 2010, up from an estimated $40 billion last year.

After realizing how much money Google was making from search, Yahoo introduced its own technology in 2004, but by then it was too little, too late.

Forrester Research analyst Charlene Li expects Yahoo to resist, predicting the company "will do everything possible to stay independent," even if it means swallowing its pride and rehiring Google to run its search engine and sell ads on its site.

Other analysts still think Yahoo might try to line up a white knight rather than fall into Microsoft's clutches. Analysts mentioned several other potential suitors, including News Corp. and InterActiveCorp.

Dinosaur Securities analyst David Garrity even thinks it's possible that China's search leader, Baidu.com Inc., or Chinese e-commerce conglomerate Alibaba.com Inc. might bid for Yahoo. Alibaba.com is 40 percent owned by Yahoo.

In what most analysts regard as a long shot, there was even some chatter that longtime Microsoft rival Apple Inc. and its CEO, Steve Jobs, might come to Yahoo's rescue.

If push comes to shove, most analysts believe Microsoft will raise its cash-and-stock bid.

Investors appear confident an agreement eventually will be reached. Yahoo shares climbed $9.20, or nearly 48 percent, to $28.38 while Microsoft shares fell $2.15, or 6.6 percent, to $30.45 -- a sign that Wall Street is skeptical about whether the acquisition makes sense.

"It's a classic case of a buyer overbidding to blow any potential competitors out of the water," said James Owers, a Georgia State University professor of corporate finance.

Shortly after Microsoft disclosed its intentions, the U.S. Justice Department said it is "interested" in reviewing antitrust issues. European Union officials declined to comment, but analysts said Microsoft probably will face more challenges getting a Yahoo acquisition approved in Europe than the United States.

Microsoft made its offer a few hours after Yahoo's chairman, Terry Semel, stepped down, removing a potential stumbling block. Semel had rejected Microsoft's takeover overtures a year ago while he was still Yahoo's chief executive, according to a letter released Friday.

Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang replaced Semel as CEO nearly eight months ago while another Yahoo director, Roy Bostock, is now chairman.

Yang, a billionaire who is one of Yahoo's largest shareholders, isn't believed to have warm and fuzzy feelings about Microsoft. He has openly expressed his admiration for Jobs and last year even invited the Apple CEO to Yahoo's headquarters for a pep talk with employees.

Microsoft believes its technological expertise will be a good fit with Yahoo's knack for providing content and services that keep people coming back to its site. Combined, the two companies would reach a U.S. online audience of 142 million compared with 124 million for Google, according to Nielsen Online.

But Yahoo and Microsoft are so far behind Google in the lucrative search market that they still will have a lot of ground to make up even if they joined forces.

Google already controls 62 percent of the worldwide search market, and has been widening its lead, according to the latest data from comScore Media Metrix. By combining, Microsoft and Yahoo would have a 16 percent share of the worldwide search market, the Web traffic tracking company said.

Google shares fell $48.40, or 8.6 percent, to close at $515.90 Friday, but the downturn appeared to be driven more by a disappointing fourth-quarter earnings report than by Microsoft's bid for Yahoo.

Besides helping to boost its online ad revenue, Microsoft believes it could mine more profit from Yahoo by jettisoning workers and eliminating overlapping operations.

Microsoft said it sees at least $1 billion in cost savings if it buys Yahoo. Microsoft executives deflected questions about how many jobs might be lost, but the company emphasized retention packages will be offered to Yahoo engineers and other key employees, including some executives.

The fate of Yahoo's brand also is unclear if Microsoft takes over. Both Ballmer and Kevin Johnson, president of Microsoft's platforms and services division, hailed Yahoo's strong brand value but did not commit to keeping the name alive.

Latest Updates

11:30 am : In the past half-hour, the Dow climbs to fresh session highs and the S&P trades near its intraday high. The Nasdaq is well off its lows, but has been unable to reach its opening highs as it trades slightly above the unchanged mark.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for world growth this year, citing continued stress in global credit markets, according to Reuters. The IMF also warned that economic activity could slow further. It now expects the global economy to grow 4.1%, compared to its earlier forecast of 4.4%.DJ30 +77.72 NASDAQ +3.56 SP500 +7.37 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1337/1422/725 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1115/1870/477 mln

11:00 am : The major indices are trading in mixed fashion. The Dow and S&P
are holding slight gains, while the Nasdaq is trading with a slight loss. Seven of the ten sectors are higher, led by a 2.6% surge in telecom. Consumer discretionary is the main laggard (-0.7%) as retailers shed 1%.

The market rumor that JPMorgan Chase (JPM 45.95, +0.83) was facing a big derivative loss is not true, according to Reuters, citing sources. JPMorgan has been relatively unscathed by the subprime turmoil that has mired other Wall Street banks.DJ30 +47.13 NASDAQ -3.88 SP500 +4.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1363/1332/579 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1167/1759/366 mln

10:30 am : The stock market is back in the green as it rises in conjunction with financials (+0.7%). JPMorgan (JPM 45.88, +0.31) declined sharply during the recent retreat on a headline that stated there is a rumor the company may be facing a large trading loss. A CNBC commentator has said the rumor is most likely not true, as the stock recovers.

After a rough start, 3M (MMM 77.84, +0.40) is modestly outperforming the broader market. The company reported fourth quarter earnings of $1.19 per share, topping estimates by two cents. The company also reiterated its 2008 guidance. The stock was lower at the start of trading, but has rebounded in the green after traders liked what the company said during its conference call. DJ30 +54.22 NASDAQ -1.21 SP500 +5.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1397/1195/419 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1329/1550/258 mln

10:05 am : Stocks give up their early gains, led by a dip in tech (-0.8%) and financials (-0.2%).
Just hitting the wires, the Conference Board said January consumer confidence was 87.9, down from December's revised reading of 90.6. Economists expected a reading of 87.0. The response immediately after the release was negative, sending the major indices to their session lows.

The weakness in tech is weighing on the Nasdaq, which is now trading with a modest loss. The S&P and Dow are trading with a slight loss.DJ30 -15.52 NASDAQ -16.08 SP500 -2.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 857/1509/134 mln

09:45 am : The stock market opens modestly higher, buoyed by a better than expected durable orders report.

December durable orders rose 5.2%, larger than the expected 1.6% rise. Excluding transportation, orders still rose a healthy 2.6%. This strong level of orders in December does not support the assertion that the economy is in a recession.
Earnings reports have been mostly better than expected, although some companies disappointed with their outlooks.

The consumer confidence reading will be released at the top of the hour.DJ30 +47.31 NASDAQ +7.90 SP500 +6.73

09:13 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.8.

08:59 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +12.0. Futures continue to point to a higher start. The FOMC begins its two day meeting today, and is set to issue its statement on Wednesday at 14:15 ET. Fed funds futures indicate a 76% chance of a 50 basis point cut, with the rest of the bets on a 25 basis point cut.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.5. Stock futures extended their gains, and then climb higher on a better than expected economic release. December Durable orders rose 5.2%, compared November’s revised reading of 0.5%. Economists expected a rise of 1.6%. Countrywide (CFC) reported a fourth quarter loss of $0.79 per share, $0.49 worse than the consensus estimate. The company issued a dividend of $0.15 on its common shares. It will not be holding a conference call to discuss its results due to its pending merger with Bank of America.

08:01 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Futures point to a flat to slightly higher open. Earnings reports have been mostly better than expected. 3M (MMM) topped estimates by two cents and reaffirmed its FY08 earnings guidance. Eli Lilly (LLY) and EMC (EMC) beat their estimates and provided reassuring FY08 guidance. American Express (AXP) met, but continues to be cautious in its 2008 outlook. VMware (VMW) beat expectations but is getting clipped in pre-market trading after guiding revenues slightly below the consensus estimate.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.3.

06:16 am : FTSE...5883.60...+94.70...+1.6%. DAX...6911.98...+93.13...+1.4%.

06:16 am : Nikkei...13478.86...+390.95...+3.0%. Hang Seng...24291.80...+238.19...+1.0%.

Stocks Fall, Giving Up Early Gains

Wall Street ended a tumultuous week with a sharp decline Friday, backtracking following two days of stunning gains as investors turned cautious and cashed in some of their winnings. The Dow Jones industrial average still managed to record its first weekly advance of 2008, even as it fell more than 170 points on the day.

The week, which started with a 465-point drop in the Dow soon after the market opened Tuesday, showed that the stock market is still fractious but may be going through healthy process of trying to establish a bottom following weeks of sharp declines.

Investors had an initial burst of enthusiasm Friday, sending each of the major indexes up more than 1 percent, after upbeat profit reports from big names like Microsoft Corp. and word of a possible buyout of a trouble bond insurer. But the advance proved short-lived and the eventual decline wasn't surprising given that investors putting down bets ahead of the weekend were coming off two days of big gains -- including 400 points in the Dow.

"People may be looking to take some profits off the table in this volatile market. And there's a lot of activity that's coming up next week," Scott Fullman, director of investment strategy for I. A. Englander & Co., said during the day's back-and-forth trading.

President Bush is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address Monday. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold its first regularly scheduled meeting of the year on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then the Labor Department will weigh in on the state of the job market on Friday.

Despite the pullback, Wall Street's tone Friday stood in sharp contrast to the intensely dour mood that hung over the market when the week began. While U.S. markets were closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, stocks in Asia and Europe plunged amid fears of a precipitous slowdown in the U.S. economy. To stave off a similar sell-off in the U.S. over recession fears, the Fed stepped in before the opening bell Tuesday with an emergency interest rate cut.

The central bank's move to lower rates by a big 0.75 percentage point to 3.5 percent helped shore up investors' confidence and led stocks to end the day well off their lows, although they still closed down. A day later, on Tuesday, Wall Street had an astonishing about-face, with the Dow swinging more than 630 points and turning a sharp sell-off into huge gains. Stocks then extended their advance Thursday.

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates again at next week's meeting; many analysts expect a half-point cut.

With Friday's decline, the market might well be following the pattern of past corrections, when huge gains were often followed by some retrenchment. Many market watchers consider such backing and filling a sign of health. However, with much economic uncertainty ahead, investors may need months before they can decide whether to take the market solidly higher.
The Dow fell 171.44, or 1.38 percent, to 12,207.17. The Dow had been up more than 100 points in the early going.

Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 21.46, or 1.59 percent, to 1,330.61. The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index fell 34.72, or 1.47 percent, to 2,326.20.
Despite the huge moves seen during the week, stocks finished not far beyond where they began, with the Dow adding 108 points, or 0.89 percent. The S&P 500 ended the week up 0.41 percent and the Nasdaq lost 0.59 percent.
Declining issues outpaced advancers by about 3 to 2 Friday on the New York Stock Exchange. Consolidated volume came to 4.78 billion shares, down from 5.48 billion shares traded Thursday.
Government bond prices jumped as stocks declined. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.56 percent from 3.71 percent late Thursday.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices rose. Light, sweet crude oil advanced $1.30 to settle at $90.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Investors are looking for clues about whether the market is due to add to its gains after a brief hiatus or whether another pullback is in the offing. Despite the increases logged this week, stocks are still down sharply in the new year.

"The market is extremely sensitive to any news that's out there. A year ago, it brushed off a lot of stuff. Now, it's just the opposite, and we're seeing reactions nearly immediately when things come out," Fullman said.

Despite giving up the early gains, Wall Street still appeared pleased by reports from U.K. newspapers that billionaire Wilbur Ross was in talks to acquire bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. Financial woes at many U.S. bond insurers have caused headaches in recent weeks for investors worldwide who have worried that tightness in the credit markets could worsen should one of the companies buckle under an inability to draw new business.
Ambac rose 21 cents to $11.54.

Word of Ross' interest follows comments this week by New York State regulators that indicated they would consider lending support to shore up the struggling bond insurance industry. While uncertainty remains over what role regulators might play, the comments initially helped reassure Wall Street and made room for stocks to rally.

Other corporate news appeared to offer investors mixed readings on the economy.
Microsoft finished down 31 cents at $32.94 after spending much of the session higher. The company raised its forecast for the rest of its fiscal year, which ends in June, and said its quarterly earnings jumped 79 percent. Microsoft cited the growing importance of its sales outside the U.S.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 4.12, or 0.59 percent, to 688.60.
Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 closed down 0.12 percent, Germany's DAX index finished off 0.06 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 0.76 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average jumped 4.10 percent after falling sharply earlier in the week. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index likewise surged 6.73 percent by the close.

The Dow Jones industrial average ended the week up 107.87, or 0.89 percent, at 12,207.17. The Standard & Poor's 500 index finished up 5.42, or 0.41 percent, at 1,330.61. The Nasdaq composite index ended down 13.82, or 0.59 percent, at 2,326.20.

The Russell 2000 index finished the week up 15.42, or 2.29 percent, at 688.60.

The Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index -- a free-float weighted index that measures 5,000 U.S. based companies -- ended Friday at 13,423.62, up 115.17 points, or 0.87 percent, for the week. A year ago, the index was at 14,358.67.