Ben Bernanke

For an academic from Dillon, S.C., Ben Bernanke is an unlikely gunslinger.
In nominating the Federal Reserve chairman to a second term, President Obama on Tuesday compared Bernanke's efforts to avert a second Great Depression to FDR's "bold, persistent experimentation" to get the country out of the first one.

But Bernanke's efforts weren't easy -- or without critics.

The Fed has taken on unprecedented risk: It took on a trillion dollars of troubled assets, slashed interest rates, bailed out financial industry titans and launched more than a dozen expensive lending programs.

Bernanke is sure to face a lively confirmation debate in the Senate before his first term is up in January of next year.

"The problem with all of the risk is that it has created an unhappiness with Congress," said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed governor. "It's going to create problems for Bernanke in his confirmation, but these things had to be done to prevent an absolute meltdown in the economy."
Exit strategy: Walking the tightrope

In part because of the Fed's aggressive efforts, there are some signs that the economy -- in free-fall late last year -- has stabilized. Gross domestic product is not falling as steeply. Neither are job losses. On Tuesday,home prices posted their first gain in three years from weak levels earlier in the year. U.S. stocks are rallying, up more than 50% in 5 months.

But all of the Fed's moves come at a cost: potential inflation down the road if the central bank is unable to rein back in the money it has pumped into the system.

Bernanke has acknowledged that concern, saying that the Fed will wind down the programs as the economy enters a recovery phase and will begin to raise interest rates.
"The fact that he had to take on a lot of risk and we have these huge debt loads shouldn't be a complete surprise -- after all, this is the Great Recession, the worst downturn we've seen since the Great Depression," said Lakshman Achuthan managing director Economic Cycle Research Institute.
"It's not about how much, it's about when they exit from this: If they leave too early, we get deep deflation, and we get spiraling inflation if they leave too late," he added. "It's a high-wire act the Fed is performing."

But that may be easier said than done. Bernanke and the Fed have come under intense scrutiny for missing the subprime mortgage bubble, and the risky solution to the crisis may lead us down the same path again.

"Bernanke has demonstrated that he is skilled at high-drama, emergency surgery, but it's not at all clear that he is good at preventative medicine to avoid the need to visit the ER," said Achuthan. "We are all hopeful that they get the timing right, but I wouldn't bet on that heavily."
Gramley agreed that timing is everything, but argued that Bernanke is the best man for the job -- because he's the one that got us into this situation.

"Obama's nomination is not just a reward for Bernanke's past performance," said Gramley. "He is the most well-qualified person to deal with the problems that the Fed has created for itself by doing what it had to do to avoid another Great Depression."
Risky assets: Counting to a trillion

The Fed's balance sheet is a measure of the assets that the central bank holds on to. Prior to the Sept. 15 collapse of Lehman Brothers, which marked the start of the credit crisis and the point in which the recession took a turn for the worse, the Fed held less than $1 trillion in assets, most of which were in safe U.S. Treasurys.

By mid-December, the Fed's balance sheet had more than doubled to over $2.3 trillion. Many of those holdings are mortgage-backed securities -- the hard-to-value assets that brought down the financial sector.

The massive expansion began after Sept. 15, when Bernanke's Fed began rolling out lending program after lending program, sending banks cash in exchange for the risky assets.
There is a Fed program that buys up corporate debt, a program that funds foreign central banks with billions of dollars, direct purchases of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), loans to AIG and ramped-up purchases of government bonds, among many others.

These initiatives have been largely successful at restoring lending among banks, and financial institutions have begun to withdraw from the programs. But the Fed is still hanging onto a majority of the assets it has taken on in the past year, and the balance sheet now stands at just under $2.1 trillion.

In another bold move, Bernanke and the Fed dropped interest rates to a record-low range of 0% to 0.25% in December in an effort to jumpstart lending. Prior to December, rates had never been below 1%.

Bernie Madoff

In her book "Madoff's Other Secret: Love, Money, Bernie and Me," Sheryl Weinstein reveals the details of her alleged affair with convicted Ponzi schemer Bernard Madoff, who she says was in love with her and was "a good kisser."

"He really got into it more emotionally than he expected to," Weinstein said, talking about the affair for the first time on television on "Good Morning America" today. "I think he loved me and was very afraid of that type of connection."

Weinstein writes that she met Madoff more than two decades ago while working as the chief financial officer for a Jewish charity, Hadassah, which was one of the hundreds of organizations Madoff eventually ripped off. At their first meeting, she wrote, he gave her a "welcoming smile, a smile [she'd] never forget."

"I knew instantly that he was attracted to me," she wrote. During the course of their 21-year relationship, Weinstein says she and Madoff had a sexual affair for a year and a half.
Weinstein had previously denied a romantic relationship with Madoff to ABC News earlier this summer. At Madoff's sentencing on June 29, she maintained she had only a professional relationship with Madoff, calling him a "beast."

Weinstein said today that she decided to write the book out of guilt over losing her family's money by investing with Madoff. "He took everything," she said.
"Investing money, investing my family's money was my responsibility," she said. "When this happened, the feelings of guilt, responsibility, failure became overwhelming

"I don't have any art, I don't have any jewelry," she added. "What I have to sell is my story." In addition to Weinstein's own money, according to Hadassah, the charity had invested more than $40 million with Madoff as of 1997, when it stopped adding principal. It believed its account was valued at $90 million when Madoff was arrested.

In June, Weinstein sat next to her husband of 37 years as she told the judge that Madoff "should not be given the opportunity to walk into our society again."

In response to the book, Madoff's lawyer Ira Sorkin blasted Weinstein for claiming the affair. "I certainly hope that Mrs. Weinstein was more discrete about her investment decisions on behalf of Hadassah than she was about her sex life -- and that is not to confirm the allegation [of an affair] is true," Sorkin said in a statement to "Good Morning America."

Sheryl Weinstein Shares Personal Details of Relationship With Bernie MadoffWeinstein's television appearance today follows reports that Madoff is dying of cancer -- reports that have since been dispelled by the U.S. Bureau of Prisons.

Weinstein says her long relationship with Madoff has given her insight into how he could have defrauded thousands of people, including many who were close to him.

"I think it was more important to Bernie to keep up the façade, the image at all costs … no matter what the moral implications," she said. "It was about Bernie and who Bernie had to be to the world."

That desire "could have stemmed back to his childhood," she said, adding that isn't an excuse for his actions.

In the book, Weinstein also divulges personal details about the man she referred to as "Mr. Winky Dink" because of a funny face he would make

"It was just a code name between me and a friend or two that was aware of the situation," she said.

She added that "he was a good kisser. Very nice."

As for her view of the relationship, Weinstein said, "I didn't like being second. I didn't like playing the back room type of person."

She says Madoff was afraid of what would happen if his wife, Ruth Madoff, learned of their affair. "He was petrified of Ruth … of his wife finding out," she said. "Divorces or something like that leads to books being opened … something might come out."

When asked if she had a message for Madoff, she said she wanted him to know that the victims of "this immense human tragedy ... will survive."

Airlines Frequent-Flier Programs

After years of shrinking benefits and increasing fees, frequent-flier programs are courting their most loyal customers again.

In recent weeks, American Airlines introduced new awards for one-way flights; United dropped its $75 to $100 fees for booking an award within three weeks of travel; and Delta Air Lines made it easier for elite frequent fliers to retain their V.I.P. status.

Carriers have also been dangling mileage offers, including double-mile promotions, and have even resurrected bonuses for booking online.

Those who follow the programs describe the changes as a slight shift in a more consumer-friendly direction, giving customers more ways to earn and redeem miles.

“What we’re seeing is a bit of a resurgence on the airlines’ part in focusing on their frequent-flier programs,” said Tim Winship, who tracks loyalty programs for SmarterTravel.com. But he added that the issue members care about most — being able to use their miles for free tickets — remains a challenge, especially with planes flying nearly full.

“I think award availability remains the elephant in the room,” he said. “The travel slump has not resulted in any increase in award availability, and in fact, if anything my sense is that people are having a more difficult time now.”

That assessment, while hotly debated on travel Web sites, is difficult to confirm.
Randy Petersen, founder of the frequent-flier hubs InsideFlyer.com and FlyerTalk.com, said 2008 was a record year for award redemption, which he attributed to travelers using miles for more mundane trips, like visits to relatives in less exotic locales.

“In a good economy, everyone wants to use their miles to go to Hawaii, London or San Francisco,” he said. “But when the recession hit, award redemption really started to spread out because people were using their miles not as much for vacation as necessary travel.”

Another factor spurring award redemption, Mr. Petersen said, has been the shift to “dynamic pricing.” If a seat that requires 25,000 miles is available for the outbound leg of a trip, but there is only a 50,000-mile seat on the return, many airlines now offer the itinerary for an amount in between — say, 37,500 miles — rather than charging the higher price for the entire trip.
In a similar vein, the new one-way award from American Airlines lets members book a flight after as little as 12,500 miles, a good option for students returning to college or snowbirds heading south for the winter.

There have also been changes in financial regulations that require airlines to account for unused frequent-flier miles as a liability, which has motivated carriers to make awards easier to redeem.
“There really is an incentive now for the airlines to get all of their miles redeemed because it’s expensive for them to carry them as a liability,” Mr. Petersen said.

Even so, he acknowledged that as travelers prioritize low-priced tickets over flying with a preferred airline, carriers need to work harder to earn loyalty, especially among their elite fliers.
Delta Airlines, for example, recently announced new benefits for its elite SkyMiles members, which take effect in 2010.

Among the more significant changes, Delta added a “diamond” tier to its existing levels of Medallion membership (silver, gold and platinum) — all referred to as having elite status, which comes with benefits like free upgrades and fee waivers.

Paul R. Skrbec, a Delta spokesman, said adding a fourth tier encouraged Medallion members to stay with Delta, rather than switch to another carrier after obtaining platinum status. The higher the tier, the better the benefits. For example, a diamond member will get a 125 percent mileage bonus versus a 100 percent bonus for platinum elites.

Seth Miller, a freelance technology consultant in Manhattan, is one of the elite frequent fliers airlines have been courting, having maintained top-tier platinum status in Continental’s OnePass program for 10 years.

“The legacy airlines especially are doing as much as they can to generate loyalty, and these days that means crazy bonuses — double miles for this, triple miles for that, miles are being given out like candy on Halloween,” Mr. Miller said.

“It’s great now,” he added, but he worries that the airlines’ largess could have a downside. “The question is, what happens when everyone tries to take advantage of all these benefits that are being handed out now? I’ve got elite status, but am I going to be able to get upgrades or will everybody else have status, too?”

Another question is whether nonelite frequent fliers have dropped off the radar as airlines focus on their biggest spenders — a message that average consumers may be responding to by shifting their loyalty to other rewards programs, like those offered on credit cards.

A research company that tracks loyalty programs found that membership in credit card reward programs surpassed membership in frequent-flier programs for the first time in 2009.

According to Colloquy, the company that conducted the research, the average household in the United States is signed up for 14 loyalty programs, ranging from grocery stores and gas stations to airlines and hotels, but actively participates in only six.

The recession has diminished participation in multiple travel programs, said Kelly Hlavinka, a partner at Colloquy. She said this could bring about a return to the original premise of loyalty rewards: to cement a relationship with just one airline or hotel.

“Savvy travelers may be saying, ‘I may not be able to spread my business out to two or three airlines, but I can consolidate my travel with one company,’ ” Ms. Hlavinka said. “The real opportunity for airlines is to try to keep that business with their airline.”

Starbucks Hikes Prices, Customers Take a Hike?

In the midst of a nasty recession, will customers want to pay more for their daily cuppa joe? Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) may soon find out.

In some markets, the java giant is adjusting prices on what it calls "more complex" beverages. Some venti-sized fancy drinks will cost as much as a quarter more than they used to, but other drinks will decline in price by an average of $0.05 to $0.15.

Starbucks heralded these price changes back in April, and it's hardly clueless about the possible impact. In a memo to baristas, the company warned that its employees should "expect customers to be sensitive to pricing changes in this economic climate." In response, the chain apparently encourages baristas tell customers that the coffee giant is looking for ways to provide value. I'm not sure customers who are paying a quarter more will buy that line of thinking, but those paying a bit less just might.

Hiking prices could make sense if Starbucks wants to reestablish its credibility as a premium coffee purveyor. I could hardly complain about that, given my previous concerns that some of the company's "value" initiatives might tarnish its brand. Still, miffed customers could turn to many alternatives, including Peet's (Nasdaq: PEET), Caribou, and Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR). And nobody underestimates the power of lower-end competition like McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) or Dunkin' Donuts, either.

Nor should we forget Starbucks' diminished traffic. Companies like Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) (NYSE: CMG-B) and Panera Bread (Nasdaq: PNRA) have successfully raised menu prices to offset flagging customer visits, but that's a dangerous game to play. Given its current precarious position, I have to wonder whether Starbucks should have left well enough alone.

Stocks touch new '09 highs

Stocks gained Tuesday, extending a recent rally, after reports showed that consumer confidence and home prices are starting to recover.

News that President Obama is nominating Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke for a second term in office added to the positive sentiment.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 30 points, or 0.3%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 2 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 6 points, or 0.3%.

Stocks slipped Monday as investors took a step back after pushing the major gauges to new 2009 highs Friday. But after Monday's brief hiccup, stocks resumed their advance Tuesday.
Stock gains were pretty broad based, with 21 of 30 Dow stocks rising, led by Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) and Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500).

But falling oil prices cut into any stock gains, dragging down the influential energy sector. Dow components Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) declined and the Amex Oil (XOI) index was off 1%.

Since bottoming at a 12-1/2 year low on March 9, the S&P 500 is up 52% as of Tuesday afternoon. The pace and breadth of the run up has left many Wall Streeters calling for a big selloff in September and October. But so far, there has been no indication of that.

"Generally, the market keeps moving higher even though so-called experts are saying it's overbought," said Terry Morris, senior equity manager, National Penn Investors Trust. "It's surprisingly strong. Maybe we have turned a corner."

Consumer confidence: Stocks hit the highs of the day just after the 10 a.m. ET release of the August Consumer Confidence index. The index rose to 54.1, surprising economists who thought it would rise to 47.9. The index stood at a revised 47.4 in July.

While the report was significant, it doesn't often correlate to what the consumer ends up doing, said Kim Caughey, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group.

"Unemployment is continuing to rise, and that's going to keep the consumer out for the time being," Caughey said. She said inventory rebuilding on the part of corporations will help support the economy in the short term, rather than a rise in consumer spending.
She said the Bernanke announcement was more notable.

Fed: President Obama nominated Ben Bernanke to chair the Federal Reserve for a second term, announcing the reappointment months ahead of the expiration of Bernanke's current term.
The reappointment is expected to receive the approval of the Senate.

"There was a bit of uncertainty around Bernanke's reappointment and the fact that the announcement was made today is driving the gains," Caughey said.

Housing: Home prices rose 2.9% in the second-quarter versus the first quarter, according to an S&P/Case-Shiller report. That's the first quarterly rise in prices in three years and could signal that the housing market has bottomed.

The 20-city index declined 15.4% in June versus a year ago, but that was shy of forecasts for a drop of 16.4% versus a year ago.

Budget: The White House released its deficit and economic forecast. It predicts a federal budget deficit of $9 trillion over the next decade and a deficit of $1.58 trillion in 2009. The $9 trillion is $2 trillion more than what the administration had forecast previously.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its own forecast shortly after the Obama administration. The CBO said the 2009 deficit will total $1.6 trillion.

World markets: European markets rallied, while Asian markets slid, with the Japanese Nikkei losing 0.7%.

Bonds: Treasury prices inched higher, lowering the corresponding yields.

Oil: U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell $2.32 to settle at $72.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching a new 10-month high in the morning.

response to the first of three government debt auctions this week. The rise in prices lowered the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.44% from 3.47% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Treasury sold $42 billion of 2-year notes Tuesday and is planning to sell $39 billion of five-year notes Wednesday and $28 billion of 7-year notes Thursday.
Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery rose $2.30 to settle at $946 an ounce.
In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the Japanese yen.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers three to two on volume of 890 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners seven to six on volume of 1.65 billion shares.