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"Overview: Upbeat bonds cast shadow over equities
By Neil Dennis
Published: August 28 2009 19:16 Last updated: August 28 2009 22:07
Economic data this week were more positive than observers had expected, but investors were divided over whether the path out of recession was straight and true, as government bond prices rallied alongside global equities.
There were no nasty surprises from growth data from the US and Germany, which confirmed it had emerged from recession in the second quarter. Meanwhile, UK numbers on Friday were revised to show the economy contracted by 0.7 per cent in the second quarter, not the 0.8 per cent estimated earlier in the month.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
US stocks retain positive edge despite rally fatigue - Aug-28Share sale rumours lift Thomas Cook - Aug-28On Wall St: Bernanke and Congress - Aug-28UK finances fears dent sterling - Aug-28Lead and sugar rally as crude takes tumble - Aug-28Natixis gives impetus to Eurofirst - Aug-28In the US, home sales data and durable goods orders pointed to a continued warming up of economic activity, while investor and consumer confidence measures in the eurozone and the US showed a gathering of momentum.
So why, analysts asked, were bond prices rising, forcing yields lower, while equity markets continued to rise? Normally, an equity rally of the magnitude seen in recent weeks would drive bond yields sharply higher.
Riccardo Barbieri, at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, said: “Central banks remain cautious about the outlook and are signalling continuing accommodation while paying lip service to ‘exit strategies’. This explains why both equities and bonds have performed well of late.”
Sean Maloney, at Nomura, suggested tha"